A jump of 7%
“In 2024, the amount of Chinese exports exceeded 25,000 billion yuan for the first time to reach 25,450 billion yuan (approximately 3,184 billion francs, 3,400 billion euros), an increase of 7.1% per year. compared to the previous year,” Lu Daliang, a Chinese customs spokesperson, said at a press conference on Monday.
In December, they jumped 10.7% from the previous year, according to Chinese customs data, comfortably exceeding the forecast of 7.5% by economists surveyed by the Bloomberg agency.
Companies are stocking up
The vitality of exports at the end of the year is partly linked to the stockpiling of foreign companies anticipating an increase in customs duties under the mandate of Donald Trump, some economists believe.
Imports also climbed to 18.39 trillion yuan (around 2,238 billion francs, 2,390 billion euros) in 2024, a more modest increase of 2.3% compared to the previous year, according to Chinese customs.
In total, trade increased by 5% in 2024 compared to last year, reaching the record level of 43.85 trillion yuan (around 5.47 trillion francs, 5.841 billion euros), the vice-president added on Monday. -Minister of the General Administration of Customs, Wang Lingjun. “China’s position as the world’s leading country in terms of trade in goods is even more secure,” said Wang Lingjun.
Stimulating measures in view of turbulence
Exports have historically been a key driver of the world’s second-largest economy. But US President-elect Donald Trump, by promising to drastically increase customs duties on Chinese imports after his inauguration on January 20, could deal a severe blow to this pillar of Chinese growth.
Chinese shipments “should remain resilient in the short term”, puts Zichun Huang, economist at Capital Economics, into perspective in a note. “But overseas exports are expected to weaken later this year if Donald Trump carries out his threat of 60% tariffs on all Chinese products,” she adds.
-To strengthen its economy in the face of this turbulence, Beijing has since September announced a series of measures to stimulate the economy, including a reduction in interest rates and an increase in the debt ceiling for local governments.
“Thanks to strong exports and easing macroeconomic policies, economic momentum has likely stabilized,” analyzes Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note.
Doubt about the extent of continued growth
But some economic circles believe that more direct fiscal stimulus measures aimed at supporting consumption are ultimately necessary to maintain growth in the Chinese economy.
Chinese economic growth figures for 2024 will be released this week. President Xi Jinping recently reiterated the official target of “around 5%” growth for the year. The International Monetary Fund instead expects growth of 4.8% for 2024.
Ultimately, Chinese economic growth could fall “well below” 4% in “the absence of major reforms”, warned the director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, in October.
