The price of a barrel could even reach $90 if the drop in Russian production coincides with a reduction in Iranian production, they add.
On Friday, the administration of outgoing US President Joe Biden announced the broadest set of sanctions to date on the Russian oil and gas industry, targeting every step of the production and distribution chain.
The announcement caused a surge in crude oil prices which continued on Monday. The price of a barrel of Brent was trading at nearly $81, the highest since August.
Traders and analysts say U.S. sanctions on Russian producers and ships could force Chinese and Indian refiners to source more from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, raising oil prices and shipping costs. freight.
Goldman Sachs estimates that Russian ships affected by new US sanctions transported 1.7 million barrels of oil per day last year, or 25% of Russian exports.
Although the sanctions risk pushing up prices, Goldman Sachs has not changed its main scenario based on a Brent price between $70 and $85 per barrel this year.
For analysts at the American bank, Russia has the possibility of reducing the selling price of its oil and attracting buyers via transport by a ghost fleet.
Russia could also refine more of its oil domestically and increase fuel exports to ease constraints on oil shipments, they say.
(Written by Anushree Mukherjee in Bangalore, French version Blandine Hénault, edited by Augustin Turpin)
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