After recent air accidents, travelers may feel less confident. But is flying really becoming more dangerous?
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In recent weeks, more than 200 people have lost their lives in two separate incidents within days of each other.
38 people died in the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in Kazakhstan; four days later, 179 people died when a Jeju Air flight crash-landed in South Korea.
The year 2024 was marked by other air disasters. At the beginning of January, an accident in Tokyo caused the death of five members of the Japanese coast guard, while the passengers of the Japan Airlines plane escaped unharmed.
A few days later, part of a plane broke away while departing from Portland, Oregon, United States, leaving a gaping hole in the side of the fuselage. Again, all 177 passengers survived the emergency landing, but the fallout from this event put Boeing in difficulty throughout the year.
Over the summer, the tragic crash of a Voepass flight in Brazil claimed the lives of 62 passengers and crew.
Severe turbulence, which caused injuries and one death on a Singapore Airlines flight, has also raised concerns among travelers about their safety.
According to the Aviation Safety Network, 318 people died in plane crashes last year, making 2024 the deadliest year for aviation since 2018.
But is aviation really becoming less safe, and should we be concerned if we’ve booked a trip soon?
Aviation is getting safer and safer
According to research conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), flying today is safer than ever.
During the period 2018-2022, the risk of death linked to air travel was calculated at 1 per 13.7 million passenger boardings. This figure is down compared to the period 2008-2017 (1 per 7.9 million boardings) and represents a significant decrease compared to the period 1968-1977 (1 per 350,000 boardings).
Research by the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Academy has shown that up to 80% of aviation accidents can be attributed to human error. An error on the part of the pilots is the cause of 53% of accidents, while a mechanical failure is only involved in 21% of cases.
Airbus studied the most dangerous part of the flight and found that takeoff and landing were the times when accidents were most likely to occur. Both crashes in December 2024 occurred during landing, although other factors were at play.
In the case of the Jeju Air accident, for example, it was reported that an engine was damaged after hitting a bird and that, for an as yet unknown reason, the plane’s landing gear was not not out at the time of landing. The investigation will be long and complex, and it will likely take some time to understand exactly what happened.
“This accident was the result of a multitude of factors, from the collision with birds to the landing without gear and without flaps”says Hassan Shahidi, CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation, a non-profit organization involved in all aspects of aviation safety. “All of this will be fully investigated, contributing factors will be determined and steps will be taken to ensure this does not happen again.”
Jeju Air inspected its fleet of “next generation” 737s out of an abundance of caution. But there is currently no indication that this is a more widespread problem on this type of device.
ADVERTISEMENTAirlines advised to avoid war zones
The Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash is a little different. Although investigations are ongoing, initial assessments suggest the plane may have been hit by Russian air defenses, causing depressurization and loss of control.
This is reminiscent of a similar situation that occurred about ten years ago. In July 2014, a Malaysia Airlines plane was shot down by Russian-backed forces using a surface-to-air missile while flying over eastern Ukraine. All 283 passengers and 16 crew members died.
The inquiry recommended that states involved in armed conflicts close their airspace and that operators carefully assess the risks when routes pass over conflict zones.
The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) publishes conflict zone information bulletins to warn air operators of potential security threats.
ADVERTISEMENTHowever, as EASA spokesperson Janet Northcote explains to Euronews Travel, “EASA does not close airspace and does not have the right to impose avoidance of airspace. But the information provided here is incorporated into each airline’s safety assessments and makes it possible to take awareness of any threat to aviation safety.
Why was Azerbaijan Airlines flying over a conflict zone? Although many Western airlines have ceased operations to and over Russian airspace, airlines from the Middle East and Asia continue to operate in this area.
Carriers from Türkiye, China, the United Arab Emirates and other countries do not avoid the airspace, despite the risk.
Every plane crash makes air travel safer
The small silver lining in aviation’s terrible year is that every accident serves to make air travel safer in the future.
ADVERTISEMENTAs Simon Calder, correspondent for the British newspaper, wrote Independent : “All dramatic aviation events of 2024 – fatal or not – will be analyzed thoroughly to understand what can be learned to improve safety in the future.”
In the case of the Jeju Air and Azerbaijan Airlines crashes, the famous “black boxes” were found and sent for questioning.
These two boxes, bright orange in color, are the flight data recorder (FDR) and the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and should shed some light on what happened before the accident.
Crash investigators are on the ground in Kazakhstan and South Korea gathering more evidence, a process that could take some time. The data collected will then be analyzed in the laboratory to determine the causes of the accident.
ADVERTISEMENTA preliminary report will likely be made public in the coming weeks, but the final report will take longer.
These reports will contain various recommendations aimed at preventing a similar situation from occurring in the future.
“One of the strengths of aviation safety processes is that every time a tragedy occurs, we analyze what happened and take appropriate action to ensure, wherever possible, that the same type accident will not happen again”explains Mr. Northcote.
If we consider any major aviation accident, it is possible to see the long-term positive effect it has had on aviation safety.
ADVERTISEMENTThe collision above the Grand Canyon in June 1956 between a TWA Super Constellation and a United Airlines DC-7, for example, led to improved forms of air traffic control.
After the mid-air explosion of TWA Flight 800 in 1996, modifications were made to prevent the fuel from igniting from an errant spark.
Without the tragedy of 9/11, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) would never have come into existence. And thanks to Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, still missing, all planes are now tracked in real time.
“This constant cycle of improvement is essential to maintaining aviation safety at a high level”explains Mr. Northcote.
ADVERTISEMENT“We work with other regulators, for example the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), to ensure that aviation safety standards are high in the around the world, not just in Europe.
While manufacturers, airlines and regulators work hard to maintain safety in the skies, Northcote emphasizes that travel safety is a team effort.
“Aviation generally has an excellent safety record, but there is no reason to rest on its laurels”she declares. “This excellent safety record can only be maintained if many people fulfill their roles every day to ensure safe operations.”
