The investment industry is showing its usual optimism when discussing possible IPOs and acquisitions in 2025.
He expects eight to ten new entrants in the German “Prime Standard” selection segment, predicts Jens Hecht, partner at the consulting company Kirchhoff. This would represent a doubling compared to last year. “Potential candidates include energy start-up 1Komma5 and Berlin-based fintech Raisin.”
Experts from the Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton business law firm add Stada, Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems and the KNDS arms group. In addition, an IPO currently appears to be the most likely option for the planned federal exit of the gas trader Uniper. They also believe that an IPO of the German power grid business of Dutch operator Tennet is possible.
Investment bankers and advisors justify their optimism in particular by the positive stock market environment. The German Dax benchmark index recently crossed the 20,000 point mark for the first time. Additionally, experts hope the future federal government will ease burdens on businesses and consumers.
INTRODUCTIONS IN STOCK MARKET AND POLITICS
Lucrative stock sales in IPOs would bring fresh money to financial investors and venture capitalists, who could then invest in established companies or start-ups. This has not been the case in recent months. For emerging technology companies, the injection of fresh capital is particularly important so that Germany can have a say in promising areas like artificial intelligence (AI) or quantum computers.
Experts from Cleary Gottlieb also predict an increase in acquisitions of German companies in the United States due to the deregulation planned by future US President Donald Trump and the threat of import tariffs. This is especially true for publicly traded companies that could increase their market capitalization thanks to American growth.
But for foreign investors, there are options in Germany in return, they emphasize. “In particular, companies in the production sectors, particularly in the automotive industry, the chemical sector as well as mechanical engineering, must reorient themselves in order to master the trends of digitalization and the energy transition.” Otherwise, they would quickly become buyout candidates themselves. Falling interest rates and the growing willingness of banks to grant more credit for company buyouts are additional factors favoring this type of transaction.
According to a “Handelsblatt” survey of industry experts, the number of takeovers and mergers could increase by at least 20 percent in 2025. Those surveyed expect around 40 deals worth more than a billion euros. Both companies and financial investors are preparing transactions. One reason is the financing environment, which has improved and is expected to continue to improve thanks to the ECB’s lower interest rates. Added to this is the necessary transformation of many sectors due to digitalization and high energy costs.
RECOVERY AT A LOW LEVEL
However, the weakness of the basis of comparison favors optimistic forecasts: Last year, the placement volume of the four IPOs on the Prime Standard amounted in total to 1.5 billion euros, calculates the firm Kirchhoff consultancy. This is the second lowest value in the last ten years. About half of that amount was spent on the Douglas perfume chain’s IPO.
“The year 2024 was also marked by restraint in terms of capital increases,” underlines the consulting firm PwC in its study “Emissionsmarkt Deutschland”. The volume is said to have fallen by 80% to 569 million euros compared to the already low value of the previous year.
The Cleary Gottlieb firm draws up a similar assessment for takeover and merger operations. However, a relatively small number of transactions here would oppose a few deals worth several billions, such as the takeovers of the biotechnology company Morphosys or the chemical group Covestro.
(Written by Thomas Seythal and Sabine Wollrab. For any questions, contact our editorial team at [email protected] (for Politics and economics) or [email protected] (for Businesses and markets).
