Emmanuel Macron's promise to consult the French without specifying what, when or how, in no way removes the uncertainty that has weighed on businesses and the French since the dissolution and slippage of public accounts. The threat of censorship by the Bayrou government on the budget has obviously not been ruled out. The words of the Head of State could even strengthen it by encouraging yesterday's censors to do it again in the hope of further weakening it before this consultation.
If Emmanuel Macron hopes for a “year of action”, 2025 presents itself on the contrary as a year of all dangers, the one which risks leading us towards a recession and its procession of bankruptcies and social plans, the one which can, in the event of of persistent immobility, make inevitable, sooner or later, a financial, economic and social crisis of such seriousness that it can have no other remedy than shock therapy.
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Let's hope that some of the censors will also make their mea culpa and think more of the French than of their personal equation
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These two scenarios will take shape in the short and medium term. In the event of further censorship of the budget obviously. But also in the event of the adoption of a text which would neither provide sufficient confidence and visibility to economic agents to restart activity, nor reassure investors, rating agencies and the European Commission about our ability to reduce our public deficit to 3% and reduce our debt. All without stopping growth or putting the French on the streets.
Listening to Eric Lombard, the passageway exists. If the new tenant of Bercy is ready to reconsider certain irritants of the Barnier budget, let us hope that some of the censors will also do their part. my fault and will think more of the French than of their personal equation.
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