While the fight against global warming intensifies, the Morocco is preparing to face the impacts of new European regulations, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Introduced in October 2023 and fully operational from 2026, this system aims to reduce carbon emissions linked to products imported by theEuropean Union. THE Moroccan exports65% of which are intended for the European market, are on the front line of the consequences of this mechanism.
A carbon tax targeting key sectors
The MACF initially applies to five sectors: iron and steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer, electricity and hydrogen. These sectors will have to pay a carbon tax on importestimated between 60 and 100 euros per tonne of CO₂ emitted. If Moroccan production of iron, steel, aluminum and cement is currently little affected, because it is mainly intended for the local market, the impact could be significant in the medium term if the mechanism extends to more other industries.
THE phosphateswhich represent a pillar of Moroccan exports, are already impacted. However, thanks to a relatively low carbon footprint compared to that of their international competitors, Moroccan phosphates could maintain a competitive advantage. On the other hand, the country's dependence on fossil fuels to produce electricity risks weakening the competitiveness of sectors such as metallurgy and the cementdespite the investments made to green their production.
An expected extension to other strategic industries
From 2027-2028, the sectors of textile and of theagro-industryessential to Moroccan exports, will also be affected by the MACF. Textile manufacturers, particularly in the north of the Kingdom, are already committed to decarbonizationoften encouraged by their European partners like Inditex. On the agro-industry side, efforts remain necessary, in particular to limit the use of pesticides andherbicides in agricultural production.
Despite these challenges, the recent performances of Moroccan agro-industry on the European market provide a solid basis: certain Moroccan products have become references there, strengthening the Kingdom's position as a key supplier.
A regional and national economic impact
Early estimates suggest that the MACF will cause a decrease in Moroccan exports of more than 10% if its scope widens. On an African scalean overall decline of 5.72% in exports is forecast, with sectors like aluminum (-13.9%), iron and steel (-8.2%), and fertilizers (-3. 9%) particularly affected. This contraction could reduce the GDP of the continent by 1.12%, or around 31 billion euros, according to 2021 data.
Service activities are not spared: Tangier Medwith record traffic of 8.6 million containers in 2023, will have to adapt to new requirements to maintain its status as an international hub.
An opportunity for energy transition
Faced with these challenges, the Morocco takes a proactive approach with national strategy of CLIMATE FINANCE by 2030. This is based on three axes:
- The creation of an integrated financial market.
- Promoting green investments with attractive projects.
- Exploring financial innovations, such as Fintechs and carbon markets.
In this dynamic, the finance law 2025 has planned a national carbon tax, aimed at reducing energy dependence and orienting the energy mix towards renewable resources. Initially planned for 2025, its application could be postponed to 2026 to better prepare economic players for this transition.
Yes, yes MACF represents a major challenge for Moroccan exports, it also offers a unique opportunity to transform the national economy towards a more sustainable model, capable of meeting international environmental requirements while strengthening its competitiveness on global markets.
