The Committee thus noted the following:
The international situation remains marked by the persistence of geopolitical tensions and the high level of uncertainties and, after notable resilience, the world economy should experience a deceleration in the medium term. At the national level, economic growth should, according to Bank Al-Maghrib projections, slow from 3.4% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 before accelerating to 3.9% over the next two years. For its part, inflation continues to decelerate and should emerge at the end of 2024 at 1% on average, instead of 6.1% in 2023, then settle at moderate levels, i.e. 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. On the external accounts side, the current account deficit would remain contained, establishing itself at less than 2% of GDP over the horizon of forecast, while official reserve assets would gradually strengthen to reach 400.2 billion dirhams at the end of 2026, the equivalent of nearly 5 months and 8 days of imports of goods and services. Regarding public finances, budgetary consolidation would continue in the medium term with a deficit, excluding proceeds from the sale of State holdings, expected to decrease from 4.5% of GDP this year to 4.2% in 2025. then to 3.9% in 2026. Under these conditions, Treasury debt should stand at 70.5% of GDP in 2024 before reducing to 69.5% in 2025 then to 68.7% in 2026.
Regarding bank credit, its component intended for the non-financial sector should see its pace gradually accelerate, going from 3.8% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 and to 5.5% in 2026, reflecting in particular the expected improvement in economic activity. The rate of overdue debts rose to 8.8% at the end of October 2024 compared to 8.4% at the end of 2023, for a provisioning rate of 68.8%.
At the end of the first half of 2024, the banking sector recorded an increase of 17.3% in its aggregate net profit on a social basis, thanks to an improvement in market and intermediation activities. This performance has reinforced the solidity of banks whose capital adequacy ratios reached, at the end of June 2024, 16% for solvency and 13.3% for Tier 1 capital, on an individual basis, levels well above the regulatory minimums of 12% and 9% respectively. On a consolidated basis, these ratios stood at 13.8% and 11.9% respectively. The solvency macro-stress test exercise continues to show the resilience of the banking sector in the face of shock scenarios simulating a sharp deterioration in economic conditions, with the short-term liquidity ratio remaining above the regulatory minimum.
With regard to Financial Market Infrastructures, the results of the monitoring and evaluations carried out once again confirm their strong resilience both financially and operationally and suggest that they still present a low level of risk for stability. financial.
Likewise, the insurance sector continued to demonstrate its strength and resilience. At the end of October 2024, written premiums reached 49.6 billion dirhams, up 4.5% compared to the same period of 2023. This increase concerned both the non-life branch (+4.6%) and the life branch (+4.4%) which has resumed its growth dynamic after the sharp deceleration recorded in 2023.
Financially, the sector's investment portfolio appreciated by 4% to 243.4 billion dirhams. For their part, unrealized capital gains increased by 62.3% compared to the end of 2023 to reach 35.2 billion dirhams, thanks to the recovery of the stock market and the fall in rates. Regarding the net result, it appreciated by 8% year-on-year. In terms of solvency, the sector continues to generate an average margin well above the regulatory minimum under the current prudential framework.
At the Casablanca stock market, the MASI index continues its upward trend, recording a gain of 22% on December 17, 2024 compared to the start of the year. The average level of volatility remains moderate at 9.87% compared to 6.87% in the first half of 2024. The overall market PER stood at 17.7x as of December 17, 2024, a level below the average of the last 5 years ( 20x), in connection with the increase in the profit mass of listed companies. For its part, the liquidity ratio of the stock market improved at the end of November 2024 to 11.48% compared to 9.50% a year earlier.
On the bond market, BDT issues fell to 169.2 billion dirhams at the end of November 2024, compared to 239.8 billion dirhams a year earlier, and the downward trend in BDT rates continues, particularly on the bond market. secondary market. Outstanding private debt recorded an increase of 8.3% at the end of November 2024 to 272.2 billion dirhams, 59.7% of which was used to finance credit institutions. Despite a slight increase in the first half of 2024, the net debt of non-financial issuers through public offerings remains at a generally controlled level, i.e. 55% of equity for listed issuers and 85% for unlisted issuers. .
As of December 13, 2024, the net assets of UCITS reached 672.5 billion dirhams, up 20.13% since the start of the year. Net subscriptions from investors on this date amounted to 68.1 billion dirhams, of which 33.97 billion concern the OMLT category. Regarding other categories of UCIs, data at the end of September 2024 show that the overall net assets of OPCIs amounted to 96.9 billion dirhams, up 28.4% year-on-year, the outstanding funds securitization remains around 17 billion dirhams and the overall net assets of OPCCs stand at 2.8 billion dirhams, an increase of 3.9%.
Concerning the quality of investors on the capital market, a renewed interest of resident individuals has been noted both in terms of opening of securities accounts, number of UCITS unit holders and volume of transactions carried out in sotck exchange.
Finally, the Committee took stock of the implementation of actions aimed at strengthening the compliance and effectiveness of the national system to combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism. While welcoming the progress made since Morocco's exit from the FATF gray list, the Committee recalled the need to continue efforts in view of the third cycle of mutual evaluations of the FATFMOAN to be started in 2026
