Keystone-SDA
Consumer morale in Germany should improve at the start of the new year. However, it should remain at a very low level while the country remains mired in stagnation, according to the GfK barometer published Thursday.
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December 19, 2024 – 08:46
(Keystone-ATS) The institute forecasts an index at -21.2 points in January, up 1.8 points compared to the month of December, which marked a relapse, according to a press release. This is better than the consensus forecast surveyed by Factset which expected a slight rebound to -22.5 points.
The consumer climate “remains at a very low level” and it has tended to “stagnate” since mid-2024, explains Rolf Bürkl, expert at GfK. The month-on-month improvement in the indicator is due to an increase in income expectations and the propensity to buy, combined with a decline in the propensity to save among consumers.
The prevailing pessimism is explained by “high prices for food and energy” after the recent wave of inflation, as well as growing concerns about job security, according to Mr. Bürkl. As for economic expectations, they are stabilizing after four months of decline.
A lasting economic recovery, however, remains uncertain: after a year 2024 which should see Germany’s gross domestic product decline, as in 2023, the aggregate should rebound timidly by 0.2% in 2025, according to the Bank’s latest forecasts. federal government of Germany. New early legislative elections will take place in February in Germany, but the formation of a new government will take time, delaying the impulses to be given to improve the economy.
In the immediate future, the wave of announcements of relocations and layoffs in the industry continues at Thyssenkrupp, after Bosch, Ford, Schaeffler, BASF, Evonik… All eyes turn Thursday to the automobile giant Volkswagen in crisis , which is currently conducting tough negotiations with the IG Metall union with a view to reducing wage costs and closing factories in the country.
