Despite an economic environment marked by numerous uncertainties, the French economy “ tient “. This is the observation made by François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Banque de France, during his visit to RTL this Tuesday, December 17. With growth expected at 1.1% in 2024 and 0.9% in 2025, the French economy is certainly showing a slowdown, but is not falling into recession. « It’s not yet the recovery we were hoping for […]but it is also not the recession that some fear or that we see in Germany “, he explained.
The comparison with Germany, the largest European economy currently in difficulty, is notable. Where certain countries suffer more from international economic tensions, France manages to stabilize. For François Villeroy de Galhau, recession is not on the agenda for next year. However, he believes that the real recovery could be “ deferred to 2026 ».
One of the most notable announcements concerns inflation, which the governor says is now under control. “ Victory against inflation is very close and almost assured », he rejoiced. In the euro zone, the objective is set at 2% inflation, a threshold that France has already managed to come close to with a rate estimated at 1.7% for this year.
Inflation under control: a key factor
Better yet, the Banque de France anticipates inflation below 2% for the next three years. This development offers two positive prospects for the French economy. On the one hand, salaries should “ grow faster than prices on average », which would strengthen the purchasing power of households. On the other hand, this trend could lead to a drop in interest rates, a favorable signal for investment and the economic attractiveness of the country.
« Controlled inflation helps both protect households and create more favorable conditions for the economy », underlined François Villeroy de Galhau. This trajectory contrasts with the challenges faced by other European economies, and places France in a more favorable position for the years to come.
The French economy is showing signs of resistance, despite slowed growth and an unstable international context. Although full recovery remains a long way off, controlling inflation represents a major step forward for households and businesses. By stabilizing prices and supporting purchasing power, the Banque de France sees reasons for hope for 2024 and beyond. It remains to be seen whether this trend can be confirmed in an economic environment that remains unpredictable.
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