Greenhouse gases | Quebec has reached half of its reduction target

Half of the GHG reductions targeted for 2030 by Quebec were achieved in 2022, mainly thanks to the carbon market. But transportation is seriously hampering the province’s progress. Here is what the most recent available data, revealed on Tuesday, tell us.

Below pre-pandemic level

Quebec’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decreased by 4% in 2022, compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019, to reach 79.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO eq.₂).

This is a drop of 3.3 Mt, or about half the reduction recorded since 1990, which totals 6.2 Mt.

“We have essentially made in three years the progress that Quebec had made over the last 30 years,” enthused the Minister of the Environment, the Fight against Climate Change, Wildlife and Parks, Benoit. Charette, at a press conference, seeing it as a demonstration of the effectiveness of the measures adopted by her government.

-19% since 1990

Quebec’s GHG emissions have thus fallen by 7.2% since 1990, but this proportion increases to 19% taking into account the results of the Quebec-California carbon market, because large Quebec emitters have purchased emission rights for 10 Mt more than the major Californian emitters, in 2022.

These emissions reductions achieved in California can therefore be counted in the Quebec balance sheet rather than in the California balance sheet, which allows Quebec to say that it has reached half of the 37.5% reduction target by 2030 compared to 1990 emissions levels.

“This is extremely encouraging,” said Minister Charette, emphasizing that in the long term, the reduction in Quebec emissions attributable to offset credits will be less significant than initially expected, which means that the reduction in emissions carried out on Quebec soil will be more big than expected.

Road transport hinders progress

The transport sector weighs very heavily in Quebec’s balance sheet, with 43.3% of emissions in 2022, followed by the industrial sector, at 31%, then agriculture, at 10%.

The road transportation subsector alone is responsible for 32.3% of the province’s total emissions.

It is also the only sector whose emissions have been increasing since 1990 (+4.8 Mt), with agriculture, to a lesser extent (+0.9 Mt), thus erasing a large part of the reductions in other sectors.

However, road transport emissions have stagnated for around twenty years, explained the Assistant Deputy Minister at the Office of Climate and Energy Transition, Jean-François Gibeault, in an information session intended for the media.

“If the curve followed the automobile fleet and demographics, it would rise very sharply,” he indicated.

The third link still coherent, says the minister

The fact that more than half of Quebec’s GHG reductions are attributable to the carbon market demonstrates that “we are not decarbonizing Quebec quickly enough,” reacted Anne-Céline Guyon, climate analyst for the organization Nature Quebec, calling on the government to carry out “structural transformations recommended by its own advisory committee on climate change”.

“Quebec should focus more on reducing its automobile fleet” by improving the transport offer, particularly interregional, adds Charles-Édouard Têtu, climate and energy policy analyst at Équiterre.

Minister Charette retorts that his government has plans in this direction, that it has bailed out municipal public transport companies and kicked off the Quebec tramway project on Monday, one first announced in 2018 before ‘be put on ice.

Continuing to invest in highway infrastructure such as the third link between Lévis and Quebec is not inconsistent with climate objectives, he adds, insisting on the need to find a balance between collective transport and “safety of the mobility”.

The decline is expected to continue

The decline in the province’s emissions should continue in 2023, assures Quebec, which expects a reduction of at least 1 million tonnes.

This forecast is based on carbon market data, which shows a drop in fuel consumption that year, explained Assistant Deputy Minister Jean-François Gibeault, adding that the increase in the share of biodiesel and Ethanol in fuels results in lower carbon emissions per liter.

Minister Charette says he is very hopeful of reaching the 2030 reduction target, noting that 67% of the measures to achieve this are in place or in the process of being in place, and that their effect will be felt more and more significantly. with time.