USA: new rise in inflation (CPI) in November to 2.7% year-on-year

USA: new rise in inflation (CPI) in November to 2.7% year-on-year
USA: new rise in inflation (CPI) in November to 2.7% year-on-year

Over one month alone, the increase in consumer prices is also higher in November than in October, at 0.3% compared to 0.2%.

Inflation accelerated again in November in the United States, for the second month in a row, and fears are growing that the curve will remain on this trajectory, complicating the task of the American Central Bank (Fed) which is meets next week.

Consumer prices increased by 2.7% year-on-year in November, compared to 2.6% in October, according to the CPI index published Wednesday by the Department of Labor, and on which pensions are indexed.

Over one month alone, the increase in consumer prices is also higher in November than in October, at 0.3% compared to 0.2%, as expected.

Inflation rebounded in October for the first time since March.

“For four months, inflation has been close to its pre-pandemic level,” however, commented the main economic advisor of the White House Lael Brainard, and “household incomes have increased more than prices” under the Joe Biden’s administration.

The price of eggs, which had become the symbol of the high inflation of recent years, is 37.5% higher than that of November 2023, further driven upwards recently by avian flu.

However, “the main element contributing to inflation remains housing”, with high prices “due to the very low level of available goods”, commented Julia Pollak, chief economist for the ZipRecruiter site.

So-called core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained stable at 0.3% over one month and 3.3% over one year.

“end the nightmare”

For Republican Senator Rick Scott, “families will forever remember the Biden-Harris administration for its 20% inflation.”

“With Trump returning to power” on January 20, we can get to work to end the nightmare of inflation,” he assured.

A commission headed by Elon Musk is notably responsible for cutting federal spending, by slashing the number of civil service employees.

But for Democratic Representative in the House Brendan Boyle, “Republicans are not solving inflation, they are doubling down on efforts to make it worse, all for the benefit of billionaires and big corporations.”

“Trump’s tariffs are nothing more than taxes in disguise, forcing Americans to pay more for everyday essentials,” and “companies are already preparing to raise prices as a result,” he said. he lamented.

Donald Trump has promised vast increases in customs duties.

American businesses are worried about a rebound in inflation, particularly due to this policy, a recent survey carried out by the Fed among business leaders revealed.

“Not certain” success

Wall Street, however, opened higher on Wednesday after these figures, before moving in a dispersed order.

“Inflation has stopped falling, but it’s not enough of a problem to derail this bull market,” said David Russell, an analyst for TradeStation, and attention “may now shift to rights policy.” customs of the new administration.

Fed officials meet next week and will decide whether to cut rates for the third time in a row, or take a break.

A drop of a quarter of a point is widely expected by market players, according to the CME Group assessment.

The inflation index is “fair enough – with no significant surprises”, and “leaves the Fed on track to lower rates”, commented Krishna Guha, economist for the investment company Evercore.

Economists at High Frequency Economics nevertheless point out that the amount of “uncertainty weighing on short-term policy changes” could encourage the Fed to take a pause.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently estimated that the central bank “could afford to be a little more cautious” on rate cuts due to the strength of the economy.

Especially since the risks linked to inflation remain “greater” than those linked to unemployment, according to Michelle Bowman, a governor of the Fed.

For Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, “the process of disinflation has slowed,” and “success is not certain.”

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