After a week which was solely focused on the miracles that Nvidia could continue to bring us in the coming times and which ended with a Bitcoin which flirted dangerously with the $100,000 which was promised for Christmas three years ago, the week ahead of us may be focused on not much given the fact that Americans will be mainly focused on the turkey that will be served to them this Thursday for Thanksgiving and I’m not sure there are enough people left in the office to waste time to analyze the inflation figures which will be released on Wednesday, knowing that inflation has – obviously – been under control for more than 12 months.
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Weekend under the sign of relief
The week therefore ended in a fairly relaxed way, since we managed to remove the last stress that remained for us to end this month of November in a calm manner: the figures from Nvidia. The Californian company therefore reassured everyone; everything is fine and growth is always their friend. We can nitpick and WE HAVE Nitpicked about the fact that the quarter’s figures and the forecasts for the next quarter did not beat expectations as strongly as usual and some gloomy minds (including myself), are starting to wonder if growth is not slowly calming down, but in the end as Goldman Sachs is still mega-bullish on the subject, we are not going to tempt the devil and go against the trend.
So yes, if we look at Nvidia’s performance since the publication of the figures last Wednesday, we cannot say that it is Byzantium, since after having touched a new historic high at the opening last Thursday, the title will still have lost $10. But that’s not important. The most important thing is still the fact that the company was reassuring about the future and explained to us ONCE AGAIN that everything will be fine and that Artificial Intelligence is STILL a revolution. And this is what seems to give the most confidence to those involved since last Wednesday. Currently we are a stone’s throw from historic highs, Bitcoin is “that” away from breaking $100,000 and everyone seems to be bathed in an unfailing serenity that is almost disturbing at times.
Look ahead
With Nvidia’s numbers behind us now, we will be able to focus on the future. As I told you at the start of this column, the future will be very short term this week, since the Americans are preparing to take the plane on Wednesday afternoon, they will return to their families in towns that you don’t even know unless you’ve done a dozen road trips in the USA, having driven randomly each time and that since Wednesday noon, there will only be interns in front of their screens to run the store. Everyone left to put on ugly sweaters with flashing lights on them to go eat a dry turkey and a mountain of other stuff that most American dietitians consider toxic, to say the least.
The markets will therefore begin a week “in parentheses” while waiting for Black Friday which will excite us on the subject of consumption without providing us with answers. What is extremely important to remember is that there are mountains of money rushing into the market and that this year all Americans have sworn not to miss the BULL MARKET in which we are. . While the year is not yet over, the amounts that have been invested since January have reached stratospheric levels and represent almost more money than the entirety of 2022 and 2023. But that doesn’t bother anyone and this, even if stock market valuations have reached levels that are higher than during the internet bubble of the 2000s. So, yes, okay I know: this time it’s different. It’s different because it’s not the same, because right away, companies are making a lot of money and artificial intelligence is really a revolution. May Sir Templeton’s soul rest in peace.
And for those who don’t have the “ref” as the “young people” say, Sir Templeton is the one who said:
“The five most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different”
Like a Monday
So there are Mondays that are more complicated than others and this one is very complicated. Complicated because there is nothing to say, other than going back to reheated things or only talking about the objectives on Bitcoin. It is true that THE SUBJECT of the moment revolves a lot around Bitcoin. We are at $97,800 and in recent days, we have made a high of $99,800 and then some, but the 100,000 has not yet been displayed on the counter. This creates a sort of waiting room atmosphere where everyone has their eyes glued to the “Bitcoin spot” to be able to be the first to put BTC 100K on X or the first to make a video where we see a trader who is dancing because Bitcoin has crossed the fateful line.
It must be said that the subject arouses everyone’s curiosity and that everyone has an opinion on the subject. Since last week we have been talking about the resignation of Gensler from the SEC and that his replacement will NECESSARILY be pro-crypto – worse than him it does not exist on the planet – and then we are constantly talking about a strategic reserve of Bitcoins to come under Trump 2.0, there was even an American politician who proposed that the USA sell its gold to buy Bitcoins instead. It is true that when we hear this and, at the same time, the boss of Microstrategy – Michael Saylor – declares that Bitcoin will reach 13 million in 2045, we say to ourselves that this is perhaps the only way to be able to one day repay the American debt. Microstrategy which is also becoming the new vehicle for processing BTC, last week – last Thursday to be precise – there were 50 billion which were processed on MSTR, while during this time, the Bitcoin ETF did not see any passing “ than » five billion. In short, all this to tell you that we are living in wonderful times and that I am going to struggle to find things to talk about this week!
Asia
This morning Asia is generally well disposed, it must be said that during the weekend, Trump announced that Janet Yellen’s successor as Secretary of the Treasury would be Scott Bessent. Bessent, who runs macro hedge fund Key Square Group, said he would support Trump’s plans for tariffs and tax cuts, but investors expect him to prioritize stability of the economy and markets rather than scoring political points. The appointment eased concerns about the new president’s protectionist policies, which risked fueling inflation, worsening trade tensions and amplifying market volatility. On the Asian side, we therefore expect a little less aggressiveness than expected in terms of customs tariffs. Japan is up 1.5%, China is up 0.23% and Hong Kong is down 0.25%.
On the oil side, the barrel is slowly rising above $70 – it is currently at $70.75 and we can read almost everywhere that investors are ready to pay a risk premium on the barrel, because tensions between Ukraine and Russia are increasing each day a little more, since it is who will fire the biggest missile at their adversary. On the one hand, what remains of the Biden administration is trying to do everything possible to offer maximum support to Zelensky and trying to leave a problem twice as complicated to Trump and on the other hand, Trump is doing everything to try to calm things down and bring Zelensky and Putin back to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, the clown who runs France wonders if he TOO will authorize Zelensky to fire French missiles at Russia. For all these reasons and because we are led by stupid politicians, oil is slowly rising, just to put pressure on the inflation issue. Gold is at $2,695 and Bitcoin is still far from 13 million, but at the same time, 2045 is 20 years away.
The week that begins
The week therefore begins very quietly and I am not sure that apart from watching Bitcoin pass $100,000 live, there is much more exciting this week. It should nevertheless be noted that we will have the Minutes of the FOMC Meeting and consumer confidence this Tuesday, then on Wednesday we will have the PCE and the American GDP. It should also be noted that the number of “experts” who expect a status quo from the FED in December is getting dangerously close to 50%, whereas ten days ago, 80% the same experts were betting on a drop of 25 bp. We see that in the middle of November, the voices of experts are volatile. Aside from that, we talk a lot about the Trump Trade which is always a topic of the moment and since we learned of the name of the Secretary of the Treasury, investors who were stressed at the idea of Trump appointing a mentally ill man who was getting out from prison, relaxed a little.
This morning the futures are up 0.4% and no, Bitcoin has not yet passed $100,000. On the other hand, if you don’t know what to do this evening at 6 p.m., Marco and I will be in a Webinar at Swissquote – it’s free and you just have to register here!
– we will talk about portfolio management, and you will be able to ask all the questions that interest you. Then we will try to answer it…
Until then, have a great day and may your start to the week be as good as the end of last week! I would also like to add that those who want to see the “replay” of my intervention on LN24 this weekend, you will also find the link here
and I confirm: the Belgians are really nice, not far from thinking that I am going to immigrate.
Have a nice week everyone and see you tomorrow!
Thomas Veillet
Investir.ch
“People on Wall Street learn nothing and forget everything”
– Benjamin Graham
