Sometimes we don’t know what to do with certain files. Palantir has gained 250% and barrows since January 1st. The company pays itself 275 times 2024 results and 219 times 2025 results. If the projections are verified, it will still be 169 times in 2026. It’s way too expensive, but it works.
It works even when the CEO, Alexander Karp, sold $2 billion worth of shares in three months (!), including more than $1 billion in one month (!), as pointed out by Brent Thill, who follows the file at Jefferies and who has difficulty understanding how the action can continue to evolve in weightlessness.
We had fun making the chronology of our main papers on Palantir since the IPO at the end of 2020. The sequence resembles a kind of self-flagellation, so much so that we can wonder if the Zonebourse team does not was not bewitched by Sauron or mystified by Saruman.
Here is the conclusion of the October 2022 paper, when the title had fallen below 10 USD:
“The file therefore presents its dark side, it is part of the story as we will have understood, and a speculative character, very linked to the “cult” Peter Thiel. We either love it or hate it, in short. It was way too expensive when it was introduced, but it went up to $45 because everyone was buying anything at the time. Currently, the stock is back to just above the IPO price. It is still very expensive despite the 80% drop from the highs, unless we think that the trajectory of profits will at one point or another join that of growth.“
This is what we said about it last February, when the stock was trading at less than 20 USD:
“Moreover, the skeptics who maintained that Palantir in reality carries out a consulting activity rather than software development will undoubtedly be contradicted by a level of gross margin which approaches 80% – closer to a Dassault Systèmes than to an Accenture or of a Capgemini therefore. That said, it is not certain that we can draw a particularly positive conclusion since at the bottom of the table the net margin remains microscopic…“
Finally, here is the opening of the article from August 7, when the stock was trading at 26 USD:
“There’s nothing wrong with changing your mind, as long as it’s in the right direction. Zonebourse analysts will have plenty of time to meditate on this old proverb of British popular wisdom. Because if it was tempting to say bad things about the Denver firm controlled by the sulphurous Peter Thiel and managed by the whimsical Alex Karp, we must recognize that the latter has been sending positive signals for some time.“
At this rate, there could be a positive recommendation when the file pays 500 times the results! Watch for this moment, because given our history, it will probably be a sell signal!
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