Clearly, Americans have suffered greatly over the past four years. And more particularly inflation.
Donald Trump is polarizing like no other. I wondered for a long time if I wanted to mention it in my column. I knowingly gave it up before the elections. It is not us who vote, but the Americans. And they don’t need a remedial course for that. I must nevertheless talk about it, because I want to understand how this election which leaves me more perplexed than ever could have happened.
I was taught not to lie. In a world where falsifications and untruths are tolerated, even knowingly used, trust is impossible. Neither the economy nor society functions without mutual trust. On the other hand, Donald Trump is a notorious liar. For four years, he spread the lie of the stolen election, without the slightest proof and without anyone calling him to account. He has spread untruths that harm others and pit people against each other. He denigrates women and minorities. He tried to incite the chairman of the Georgia state election board to rig the election, he incited the mob to storm the Capitol in order to prevent the confirmation of the result of the 2020 election and did not lift a finger when people were killed on this occasion and his own Vice President Mike Pence had to fear for his integrity and his life.
It’s the Economy
For 73 million Americans, this doesn’t seem to be a problem. They tolerate his excesses of language, his lies and his insults. How is this possible? How can we have such a judgment? Clearly, Americans have suffered greatly over the past four years. And more particularly inflation. The price level has increased by 21% since the election of Joe Biden in November 2020. The middle and lower classes in particular seem to be unable to sufficiently compensate for this increased daily burden felt by higher wages, as shown by the data relating to consumer morale.
If inflation indeed played such an important role, one wonders why voters don’t blame Trump as well. His $2.2 trillion economic package (CARES Act) in March 2020 was only slightly smaller than Joe Biden’s two packages totaling $2.8 trillion that followed in December 2020 and March 2021. These excessive stimulus measures and the surpluses saved during the pandemic have had a decisive impact on inflation. But voters don’t seem to remember that.
Trumponomics is inflationary
They also don’t seem to dwell too much on the expected development. The election of Donald Trump in no way promises lower inflation. All of his plans – from raising tariffs to pressuring the Federal Reserve to tax cuts to migrant deportations – will ultimately lead to higher inflation. Markus Brunnermeier, professor of political economy at the renowned Princeton University and one of the most respected economists in the United States, also emphasizes that the compensation of tax cuts with customs duties envisaged by Donald Trump does not work not arithmetically. JPMorgan Chase, the largest US bank, estimates that tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods and 10% on all other imported goods will increase US inflation by 1.5% to 2% in 2025. The Peterson Institute reaches similar conclusions with an increase of 2% for 2025. This forecast only takes into account customs tariffs and not other projects likely to encourage inflation.
No solidarity with migrants
Along with anger over high inflation, Democrats’ failure to stem immigration is also expected to have played a significant role. For the lower income classes who overwhelmingly voted for Trump, immigrants are nothing more and nothing less than competitors. Donald Trump’s promise to stem immigration and even deport undocumented immigrants on a large scale, lowers competition in the labor market for simple activities, which eases wage pressure on lower income classes. The fact that these layers are largely made up of people themselves from an immigrant background does not mean that they are in solidarity with all those who also want to get there. As Bertold Brecht already said in The Threepenny Opera: “First the food, then the morals”. The focus of the Democrats’ electoral strategy on the character of D. Trump, a scoundrel devoid of morals, was therefore not very effective.
Placed under guardianship
And all the more so since dishonesty is also part of the Democrats’ repertoire. For a long time, they tried to conceal the condition of their president and fiercely denied that he was no longer able to assume his functions. Their method was just a little more subtle than Donald Trump’s. Americans no longer want to be told what is correct when it comes to gender, climate policy or foreign policy. It would certainly have been wiser for Democrats not to constantly draw voters’ attention to the inadequacy and obscenities of Donald Trump. They thus gave the impression of a moral superiority and an arrogance which never passes through to the lower classes. In this sense and like that of 2016, the recent election served as a protest against elites disconnected from the daily concerns of large sections of the population in the United States. This can be seen in the polls which have once again been badly wrong and which have not been able to correctly capture the general atmosphere within the American electorate.
Four difficult years
The election of Donald Trump is a blow to value-based principles, democratic achievements and the rule of law. Steps have already been taken to drop federal legal proceedings against him, although his election as the 47th President of the United States does not change his guilt or innocence. The next four years should be difficult. Especially for all those who continue to want to instill values such as decorum, morality and honesty in their children. How will Donald Trump’s 73 million voters resolve this dilemma?
