The catalog is heavy and its weight, even before it is weighed by economists, is sure to break records. The parties of the New Popular Front (NFP) agreed on Friday on a program of nearly 180 measures, largely inspired by LFI, the cost of which promises to be unprecedented. Around twenty decisions of “ breakup » would be taken within two weeks after his victory. The left thus promises to repeal the pension reform, to increase civil servants by 10% and to raise the minimum old age. Provisions to which are added the progressive implementation of completely free schooling (supplies, canteen, transport, etc.) and the increase in the minimum wage to 1,600 euros net (i.e. an additional 200 euros).
Legislative survey: one in two French people fears a victory for the RN
The NFP did not provide any figures or medium-term framework. But the bill for these first fifteen days can be estimated, on the basis of the latest finance laws, at a minimum of 40 billion euros over a full year, which is more than the reduction in VAT on energy praised by the RN. The rest of the program, called “ been bifurcations ”, would take place over a hundred days. With the same generosity: establishment of an independent income from the age of 18 for people below the poverty line, free first kilowatt-hours of electricity, elimination of the 10% tax on energy… Either around twenty billion more, at least.
Retirement at 60, indexation of pensions to salaries…
In the following months, increases in public credits are also planned for many ministries (Education, Culture, Sport, etc.), as well as in the field of health, without forgetting the construction of 500,000 nursery places and 200,000 social housing units. . The most colossal promises come next. Returning to retirement at age 60 with 40 years of contributions is given as a “ common objective » – understand: only LFI believes in it. The stake is 50 billion euros. Same mortgage on the indexation of pensions on salaries (repealed by Prime Minister Édouard Balladur in 1993) and that of salaries on prices, abandoned by the PS itself under François Mitterrand in 1983. Jacques Delors, in Finance, had thus putting an end to galloping inflation.
Renaissance sets the bill for the program proposed by the New Popular Front at 287 billion euros
How could the left dominated by the rebels offer such largesse? A salvo of tax increases is announced: increase in old-age contributions, taxation of savings income and overtime, additional contributions on high salaries, restoration of the ISF, increase in inheritance taxes… The CSG would be returned progressive and the income tax would increase to 14 brackets, which implies that the upper middle classes and the wealthiest would be doubly involved. The fiscal earthquake is not quantified. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s program in 2022 added more than 50 billion euros in revenue, according to the Montaigne Institute, from equivalent measures.
Load the boat
Like that of the RN, this project appears to be at odds with the European Union – not to mention the repercussions on the debt and the country’s capacity to cope with it. The New Popular Front does not hide it: it means, in a Mélenchonist formula, “ refuse the austerity constraints of the budgetary pact “. In other words, not applying euro zone rules relating to public deficits and the coordination of budgetary policies. With the resulting risk of sanctions and implosion of the EU.
A few hours after it was made public, the document was dissected by Renaissance which established the bill at 287 billion euros. The Montaigne Institute, in 2022, estimated the expenditure of the LFI project at 331 billion euros. The presidential party has loaded the boat by attributing to the left the idea of establishing a sixth week of paid leave (50 billion euros) which does not however appear in the program. He estimates the foreseeable job losses at 1.2 million positions, due in particular to rising labor costs. In 2022, the think tank Terra Nova, classified as center left, mentioned “ a desaster » after having assessed the Nupes program.
