But as for China, whose economy is failing and which is faced with more and more customs barriers abroad (USA, Europe, Turkey, Indonesia, etc.), exports are a major issue. And a closure of the American market could paradoxically slow down China’s ambition to be the world’s leading economic and military power in the coming years, especially if we take into account the aging of the population. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (CPANP) is meeting this week and must decide, by November 8, on the evolution of Chinese economic policy to be pursued.
gull“It’s the paradox. Those who voted for Donald Trump are the first victims of his tariff policies”
A move to play in Taiwan?
“China is more ambiguous than Russia on the Republican victory. Because the return of Trump means economic war. Reinforced customs tariffs on Chinese products. This will create significant new tensions. But at the same time, the Chinese could have an opportunity with respect to Taiwan… Because Trump never committed to defending Taiwan.” specifies Tanguy Struye from Swielande. Taiwan which is at the heart of tensions in Southeast Asia, since Xi Jinping’s China claims it as Chinese but Taiwan defends its independence. The essential place that Taiwan has taken in the technological field of semiconductors as well as the indirect support of the USA have enabled it to resist. But for how long?
“Even if within the Republicans, apart from Trump, there is strong support for Taiwan, the danger is that China will take action. Without necessarily going to war but by increasing provocations or strengthening the blockade on Taiwan.replies Tanguy Struye from Swielande.
gull“This is where we see the intellectual limit of Donald Trump on these economic questions”
“He was even ready to sanction TSMC (the Taiwanese semiconductor giant, Editor’s note) because the latter is stronger than its American competitors. While Biden has succeeded in ensuring that TSMC sets up and produces in the United States. This is where we see Donald Trump’s intellectual limit on these economic issues.“, he continues.
What repercussions on our economies in the event of an invasion of Taiwan? “Xi Jinping is radical and seems to have little regard for economic decisions”
“The world is complex but it comes with simplistic solutions”he decides again. “So the Chinese are divided regarding Trump’s position“, he repeats.
Protectionism and “scary rhetoric”
Donald Trump should therefore probably strengthen his trade war logic. He promised, for example, taxes of 60% on Chinese imports and 200% on Mexican imports. Very bad news for Audi, for example, which was planning to set up in Mexico in order to export its vehicles to Uncle Sam. Enough to further penalize the European automobile industry, already in turmoil. But that’s another question.
“Trump’s rhetoric is frightening, although it is unclear how he can increase trade barriers to this extent. This will significantly increase inflation in the United States. That’s the paradox. Those who voted for Donald Trump, with purchasing power as an argument, are the first victims of the tariff policies which will cause inflation to soar.“, he continues.
Joe Biden has suffered the negative consequences of Trump’s previous policies, and Trump will benefit from the situation redressed by Biden.
According to him, Joe Biden has suffered the negative consequences of Trump’s previous policy. And Biden managed to restore the American economy and even curb inflation. From now on, it would be Trump who will benefit from this improved situation. “For Harris and Biden, it’s frustrating to see that the numbers are good, inflation is under control and they are losing the election. Fifteen or twenty years ago, with a good record, it was OK. Even that doesn’t matter anymore. This is the paradox of democracies where the candidate in office benefits or suffers from the decisions of his predecessor“, he blurted out. “We will have to see how the markets will react in the medium and long term.“, term-t-il.
Can the European military industry keep up with Russia? “Putin’s advantage is having ammunition and cannon fodder”
Defense industry
“We have been saying for years that we must react. And crisis after crisis, little happens“, further advances Tanguy Struye from Swielande, who asserts that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was not even enough to wake up Europe and its defense industry. “Former European Commissioner Thierry Breton said to invest 100 billion euros in Defense, but people laughed in his face. We cannot have common programs. We bought American because they have the capacity to deliver quickly but we did not take our responsibilities in this war“, he continues. And the return of Trump will hurt all the more.
Donald Trump elected president: What can we now expect in the conflict in Ukraine?
