09h10
What to remember for now
Donald Trump claimed victory in a speech to supporters in Florida.
The Republican candidate won Pennsylvania (19 electors), Georgia and North Carolina (16 electors each).
The dollar appreciated Wednesday morning to 87.3 cents against the Swiss currency against 86.3 shortly after midnight.
Bitcoin rose around 4:08 a.m. (in Switzerland) to $75,005, crossing the $75,000 mark for the very first time.
WTI crude oil futures fell toward $70 a barrel Wednesday morning, ending a five-day streak of gains.
08h57
European stocks waiting
European and Chinese stocks could be negatively impacted initially in the event of Donald Trump’s victory, estimates John Plassard, director at Mirabaud bank.
“The European automobile industry would be particularly vulnerable to a potential trade war with the United States, due to customs duties. In addition, the luxury sector and European high-tech companies could also suffer from American trade retaliation,” he warns. (‘AGEFI)
08:55
Update on Asian markets
In Tokyo, the flagship Nikkei index closed up 2.61% to 39,480.67 points, and the broader Topix index ended with a jump of 1.94% to 2715.92 points.
Conversely, the Chinese markets were divided and dominated by caution: around 06:30 GMT, the Shanghai composite index gained 0.44% to 3,401.85 points, that of Shenzhen 0.87% to 2,065.57 points. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, on the other hand, plunged 2.40% to 20,502.24 points.
Investors remained divided between the expected support for economic recovery plans in China, the details of which should be revealed at the end of the week, and the prospect of a possible election of Donald Trump which darkens the horizon for the Asian giant. (ATS)
08h52
An impact on the Fed’s monetary policy
For Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier Bank, the economic policy that Donald Trump wishes to apply could lead “to a more dynamic American economy, with growth above potential and inflation above the Federal Reserve’s objective. Interest rates should then be higher than pre-election forecasts.”
However, such a program requires full control by Congress. “A divided Congress would allow some control over the president. The issue of tariffs is essential for global trade and the Fed’s prospects for easing,” he adds.
As a reminder, the American Federal Reserve is due to unveil its monetary policy decision on Thursday, with markets anticipating an easing of 25 basis points. (‘AGEFI)
08h45
The consequences for the stock markets in the event of Donald Trump’s victory
A victory for the Republican candidate would have positive earnings implications for US stocks, particularly in the financial, energy and small business sectors, says Arthur Jurus, chief economist for Switzerland at Oddo BhF.
With a major consequence for inflation as well. “Trump’s aggressive tariff policy calls for import taxes of 10% on all foreign goods and 60% on Chinese imports, which could add up to 1.7% additional inflation in the United States over a decade,” he underlines in a research note. (‘AGEFI)
08h40
Crucial victory for Trump in the key state of Pennsylvania
Donald Trump won a crucial victory on Wednesday in the key state of Pennsylvania, a big prize in terms of voters and one of the most contested in the presidential race, according to projections by American media CNN and NBC.
08h39
The Swiss franc depreciates against the greenback
The dollar appreciated Wednesday morning to 87.3 cents against the Swiss currency against 86.3 shortly after midnight as Republican candidate Donald Trump took the lead in the race for the presidency. On the other hand, the franc climbed against the euro to 93.8 cents against 94.3 around midnight. (‘AGEFI)
08:35
“We made history,” Donald Trump told his supporters on Wednesday, claiming victory. The Republican candidate promised to “help our country heal.” (ATS)
08h33
Oil prices under pressure
WTI crude oil futures fell toward $70 a barrel Wednesday morning, ending a five-day streak of gains. They were weakened by a rising US dollar as markets closely followed the US election results.
Adding further pressure on oil prices, API data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels last week, surpassing the expected increase of 1.8 million barrels . Separately, Hurricane Rafael threatened production in the Gulf of Mexico, potentially reducing U.S. production by 1.7 million barrels per day. (‘AGEFI)
08:10
Fox News declared Donald Trump the winner of the US presidential election on Wednesday. This is the only media to give a final result at the moment. The conservative channel is counting on a Republican victory in the key states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (ATS)
07h54
The price of gold, a safe haven which had soared in recent weeks, fell sharply on Wednesday morning, while the counts of the presidential election in the United States gave a clear lead to Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Around 7:35 a.m., an ounce of gold fell 1.3% to $2,709.40, far from the historic peak of $2,790.07 reached at the end of October. Over one month, however, the price of the precious metal is still up 3.5% and 38.9% over one year. (ATS)
07:50
The yield on the 10-year US bond increases
The yield on 10-year US Treasuries jumped around 4.4% on Wednesday morning, reaching its highest level in four months. Investors are reacting to the early results of the US presidential election, where Trump took a lead over Harris.
Market participants are also closely watching the balance of power in Congress, as the outcome could have significant implications for future spending and tax policies.
Treasury yields began rising in mid-September in so-called “Trump deals” as his policies on immigration, tariffs and taxes are considered as inflationary. Additionally, expectations of increased government spending and a growing debt burden in Washington – regardless of who wins the election – have also contributed to rising bond yields. (‘AGEFI)
07h42
“Significant losses were observed during the night”
Commodities markets are taking note of Donald Trump’s likely victory in the US presidential election, underlines Ole S. Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank.
“Significant losses were seen overnight as traders priced in the prospect of a Trump 2.0 scenario in which Republicans take control of Congress and the White House – a scenario likely to trigger the promised tariffs on imported products, particularly from China,” he explains.
It specifies that industrial metals are the most affected, with copper and iron ore leading the way, “while grains are trading lower, with soybeans leading, on fears that China’s countermeasures will harm U.S. soybean and corn exports. (‘AGEFI)
07h30
Update on the major voters won by Trump and Harris (provisional results)
07h13
The dollar climbs against the franc
At the start of the session, the dollar/franc pair recently climbed to 0.8691, and sometimes even clearly exceeded the 0.87 mark at 0.8755.
“The apparently clear result of the US presidential election reduces uncertainty,” Matthias Geissbühler, CIO of Raiffeisen, explained on Wednesday. “This will lead to a strengthening of the US dollar in the short term. Given that the franc is less in demand as a safe haven, we do not expect that the Swiss National Bank will have to resort to interventions in the foreign exchange market,” he said. (ATS)
07h05
Republicans regain control of the US Senate
The Republicans regained control of the US Senate on Wednesday, until now in the hands of the Democrats. They won a majority of at least 51 seats out of 100, according to Fox News and NBC media projections. (ATS)
06h55
Trump wins key state of Georgia
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won the key state of Georgia on Tuesday, according to projections from several American media. This is a second setback for her Democratic rival Kamala Harris after her defeat in North Carolina.
This state brings 16 major voters to Donald Trump.
This victory brings the total of electors to 243 for the former Republican president and 189 for the Democratic vice-president. It takes 270 to win the US presidential election. (ATS)
06h44
The Tokyo Stock Exchange climbed more than 3% at midday on Wednesday, benefiting from the fall of the yen against a dollar invigorated by anticipations of the budgetary impact of a possible election of Donald Trump in the United States.
In Tokyo around 03:50 GMT, the flagship Nikkei index rose 3.09% to 39,664.53 points, and the broader Topix index rose 2.13% to 2,720.89 points. The yen plunged by more than 1.5% against the dollar, a depreciation likely to make the purchase of Japanese shares more attractive – and to lower the cost of imports for Japanese firms. (ATS)
06h37
Donald Trump is in the lead
Republican Donald Trump won the key state of North Carolina on Tuesday, fueling the optimism that is winning over his camp. Nothing is yet decided in his breathtaking duel with Kamala Harris for the White House.
It is the first of the seven decisive states in this tense election to be judged by the American media. It brings 16 additional electors into the hands of the 78-year-old Republican tribune.
For the moment, Donald Trump is in the lead with 227 voters, compared to 172 for Kamala Harris. According to still provisional results, Donald Trump is in the lead in several decisive states, with an electoral official mentioning in particular an “insurmountable lead” for the Republican in Georgia. (ATS)
06h35
The dollar and bitcoin soar
Boosted by the prospect of regulatory relaxation favorable to digital currencies in the event of Donald Trump’s victory in the American presidential election, bitcoin rose around 4:08 a.m. (in Switzerland) to 75,005 dollars, crossing the threshold for the very first time. mark of 75,000 dollars.
The greenback climbed by 1.71% against the Japanese currency, to 154.21 yen per dollar and appreciated by 1.67% against the common European currency, to 0.9302 euros per dollar.
“Markets are starting to bet on Trump’s return. He won with a larger margin than expected in Florida, a very populous state, which reinforces expectations of Republican scores better than expected elsewhere in the country, underlined Yugo Tsuboi, strategist at Daiwa Securities. (ATS)
06h30
Welcome to this live broadcast dedicated to the American presidential election!
Voting results, reaction of financial markets: find the latest information around the election in real time.
