(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange was a little scared this morning with the opening of a ‘gap’ falling by almost -60 Points between 7,511 and 7,452 at the opening then a widening of losses until – 1.6% before rising towards -1% (around 7435) while the Euro-Stoxx50 drops -1.1%.
What a contrast with Wall Street which reopened slightly higher (+0.2% for the S&P500) with Nasdaq establishing a new absolute record at 18,785 (+0.3%), despite AMD’s -10% fall (after its quarterly) and -35% of Super Micro Computer towards $32.5, without forgetting -3% on ASML and Qualcomm.
But this is offset by the rise of 2 titans: Google gains +6% and Amazon +1.8% (and this evening, it will be the turn of the 2 ‘M’s, Meta and Microsoft).
This Wednesday session will remain marked by the new historic zenith of gold which peaks around $2,790, silver gaining +1% to $34, still 3% below the resistance of $35.
The session is also marked by the publication of numerous statistics, in particular concerning US economic growth.
The GDP (gross domestic product) of the United States increased at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, according to the very first estimate from the Department of Commerce, therefore slowing slightly compared to that of 3% in the second quarter. .
This is also the eighth quarter out of the last 9 showing growth above 2%’.
This growth is mainly attributable to increased consumer spending (thanks to a surge in outstanding credit cards), exports and federal government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, have increase.
Furthermore, the PCE price inflation index was estimated at +1.5% in raw data and at +2.2% excluding food and energy, levels significantly down compared to those observed on previous quarter, by +2.5% and +2.8% respectively.
Another highly anticipated figure, the private sector in the United States created 233,000 jobs in October (after 159,000 in September), its highest level since July 2023 and a figure more than twice higher than expectations (115,000), according to the monthly survey by business services firm ADP.
This is the strongest month-on-month acceleration since July 2023.
‘Even taking into account the post-hurricane recovery context, employment growth was strong in October. At the end of the year, hiring in the United States appears robust and generally resilient,’ reacts Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
The T-Bonds nevertheless eased by -1.5Pts towards 4.2643%, the ’30 years’ by -3.8Pts towards 4.481%.
Also highly anticipated, the inflation rate in Germany (or CPI) increased by +2% compared to October 2023, compared to 1.6% the previous month, according to the preliminary estimate from Destatis.
Consumer prices would have increased by 0.4% sequentially over the month ending compared to September 2024. The ‘core’ inflation rate excluding food and energy, often called underlying inflation, would be established at 2.9% at an annual rate in October, after 2.7% in September.
Announced this morning, the growth of French GDP in volume accelerates moderately in the third quarter of 2024, according to INSEE: it thus increases by 0.4%, after +0.2% in the second quarter, stimulated by the Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris.
Among the many other data expected in the morning were also the first GDP estimates for Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the European Commission’s ESI economic sentiment indices.
In the third quarter of 2024, GDP increased by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU (thanks to France and Italy), compared to the previous quarter, according to the flash estimate preliminary from Eurostat, after increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively in the second quarter.
The European bond markets have difficulty digesting this avalanche of ‘stats’ and are moving in the opposite direction from T-Bonds with a general tension in yields: +3.7Pts to 4Pts on Bunds and OATs at 2.3700% and 3.114% respectively, then +3.2 Points on Bonos at 3.062% and +6 Points on Italian BTPs at 4.619%.
The Euro is taking advantage of the yield differential in its favor with a gain of +0.4% against the Dollar at 1.0860… the greenback remaining stable against the yen or the Swiss Franc.
The barrel of Brent recovers +1% from its floor of $71.2 and rises to $72 in London.
In Paris too, the quarterly publication season is in full swing: Schneider Electric, Capgemini, bioMérieux and M6 have just revealed their nine-month turnover figures, after those of Saint-Gobain and Eutelsat the evening before.
