According to the International Energy Agency, air conditioning needs could further intensify due to heat waves.
The «clim» in the sights of the International Energy Agency. Air conditioning is one of the “motors” major contributors to the growth in demand for electricity in the world, an appetite boosted by rising standards of living and rising temperatures, the organization underlined in its annual report on Wednesday. Combined, “rising incomes and rising global temperatures will generate more than 1,200 TWh of additional global cooling demand by 2035 (…) an amount greater than the current electricity consumption of the entire Middle East »underlines the IEA in its World Energy Outlook report, based on current policies.
“With rising income levels and more heat waves we are seeing around the world due to climate change, people are buying air conditioners, which increases the demand for electricity”said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol during a press briefing on Wednesday. “Especially in emerging countries, air conditioners are one of the main drivers of growth in global electricity consumption”explains Mr. Birol.
Today, the installation of air conditioners is very uneven between countries: in Japan or the United States, 90% of households have an air conditioner, but only 5% in Nigeria, 15% in Indonesia and 20% in India. , according to Mr. Birol. More than 90% of air conditioner growth takes place in emerging markets and developing economies. In its report, the IEA revised its projections for global electricity demand in 2035 upwards by 6%, compared to its forecasts for 2023, under the effect of industrial consumption, mobility electrical, air conditioning, data centers and artificial intelligence (AI).
The rise in demand for electricity
Total electricity demand, across all sectors, is expected to increase by around 6,760 TWh by 2030 under scenarios based on current policies. But in this reference scenario, data centers are not the most greedy: they represent less than 10% of the growth in global electricity demand, “roughly matching the growth in demand for desalination, and less than a third of the growth in demand for electric vehicles and space cooling in the building sector”.
According to the IEA, growth in electricity demand for air conditioning could even be stronger than expected if heat waves intensify. A scenario “exploring the impact of more frequent, more intense and longer heat waves on the ownership and use of air conditioners” shows that they could even increase electricity demand for air conditioning in 2035 by 700 TWh more than predicted by the basic hypothesis. In April and May, a heat wave in Southeast Asia caused sales of air conditioners to explode. Enough to put a strain on electrical systems. “While increasing overall demand, cooling is also expected to lead to sharper peaks in demand, putting additional pressure on power grids”warns the IEA.
