the market no longer believes in it much

(Boursier.com) — Airbus advances 0.6% to 128.2 euros after the announcement of 50 deliveries in September. Analysts are becoming more and more skeptical about the European giant’s annual delivery target being achieved. Bernstein (‘outperform’) for example now clearly sees risks in this guidance and reduces his own estimate to 750 units. It also lowers its delivery forecasts for 2025, from 870 to 820 aircraft. Airbus has already made huge deliveries in December, but if by the start of this month the target seems unachievable, it could decide to withdraw its forecasts as it did in 2022, the broker points out.

Citigroup (‘buy’) notes that orders show continued good demand, but deliveries since the start of the year represent 64.5% of the current target, slightly below the recent average of 65, 3%. The bank sees a “reasonable likelihood” that Airbus could lower its full-year target to a range of 750-760 when it presents third-quarter results on October 30. Finally, Morgan Stanley (‘overweight’) says that meeting forecasts is “increasingly difficult”. The stock may already be pricing in a ‘miss’, although the loaded delivery profile at the end of the run may avoid an explicit downgrade in the next quarterly release.

Airbus is targeting 770 deliveries for the full year after reducing its target of 800 planes in July, citing shortages of engines and other parts as the aerospace industry’s supply chain struggles to recover. the pandemic.