JavaScript is disabled! Why you want to do so? Please enable JavaScript in your web browser!
According to the economic report from the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the Moroccan economy recorded growth estimated at 2,8% year-on-year third quarter 2024against an average growth of 2,4% over the first six months of the year.
This renewed activity is based on a solid recovery of industrial branches and resilient domestic demand. However, forecasts for the fourth quarter indicate a slowdown to 2.5%attributable to the deceleration of non-agricultural sectors and persistent challenges in the agricultural sector.
The drivers of growth and the signs of slowdown
The secondary branches would have played a determining role in this dynamic in the third quarter, with growth excluding agriculture reaching 3,6%. The extraction industries would have stood out, recording an increase in 15,4% thanks to increased demand for phosphate and an increase in productive capacities in derivatives such as DAP (Di-Ammonium Phosphate) and le TSP (Triple Super Phosphate). However, this strength could ease in the fourth quarter, due to an anticipated slowdown in exports and an adjustment in international markets.
The domestic demand would remain the main engine of Moroccan economic growth, supported by an increase in wage income and social transfers, despite inflationary pressures weighing on purchasing power. Household consumption would have increased by 3,2% in the third quarter of 2024, but a moderate slowdown would be expected in the fourth quarter due to rising costs of living and overall economic uncertainties.
The agricultural sector would continue to weigh on the overall performance of the economy. In the third quarter of 2024, agricultural value added would have contracted by 4,1%, leading to a notable drop in the production of poultry and red meat. The outlook for the fourth quarter remains discouraging, with an expected drop in crop and livestock production, attributable to unfavorable weather conditions and pressure on production costs.
After several quarters of stabilization, l’inflation would have recovered slightly in the third quarter of 2024, reaching 1,2% against 0,8% the previous quarter. The rise in food prices, particularly meat prices, would have been the main factor in this renewed inflationary trend, amplified by production difficulties and pressures on supply. A partial lull would be expected for the fourth quarter, supported by the stabilization of non-food prices, although pressures on basic foodstuffs persist.
THE investments would have continued to support activity in the third quarter of 2024, with an increase of 9,6%, stimulated by spending on industrial equipment and increased use of bank financing. However, businesses would be cautious in the fourth quarter, facing an uncertain international outlook, which could slightly dampen investment spending.
Economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024
Moroccan growth would slow down to 2,5% in the fourth quarterbut the main internal drivers, such as household consumption and public investments, would continue to support economic dynamics. However, persistent challenges in the agricultural sector and adjustments in industrial branches could dampen the recovery momentum. Uncertainties linked to international trade and global monetary policies could also affect growth prospects.
It should be noted that these analyzes and figures are estimates from surveys carried out by the economic situation department of the HCP. The final figures, of an accounting nature, come from the national accounts department. However, these estimates are often precise and close to reality. Note also that the use of the conditional here reflects doubt since it is not a question of calculation, of an accounting situation, or of a definitive overview, but of estimates based on a survey.
Do you have a real estate project in mind? Yakeey & Médias24 help you make it happen!
© Media24. Any reproduction prohibited, in any form whatsoever, without written authorization from the Société des Nouveaux Médias. This content is protected by law and in particular law 88-13 relating to the press and publishing as well as laws 66.19 and 2-00 relating to copyright and related rights.
