Same, same but different. Anyone who has observed Bitcoin’s price since 2009 and its evolution over the years has noted repeating patterns and similarities in price dynamics between the lows and the highs. Based on the famous halving of Bitcoin which occurs every 210,000 blocks or approximately every four years on average, the cycles repeat themselves and they even serve as a basis for predictions for many experienced traders as well as for certain apprentice crypto influencers who claim to know “where we are” in the present cycle.
But what if they were wrong? What if everyone was wrong? What if this time things were different? This is the theory of CoinMarketCap analysts who tell us that this time we could be at the gates of an original and never before seen Supercycle. Are you curious to know more? Here we go for the explanations.
For CoinMarketCap analysts, this cycle will be different from others
Regarding four-year cycles articulated around the halving of Bitcoin and all the explanations that go with it, we cannot advise you enough to start reading the excellent article by our colleague who has addressed the matter exhaustively in the past.
Just know in summary that a new high, a ATH as the Americans say All Time Highshould normally be observed between the 518th day and the 546ème after this halving as was the case during the last two cycles and as can be seen in the graph below.
We should therefore witness a new high in 2025 and more exactly somewhere between the months of August and September. However, for specialists in CoinMarketCap (CMC), we have already covered 40.66% of the bull run and we are ahead of previous cycles.
The dynamics of the crypto market have already changed depending on the sectors
Here is what we can read in the study by the CMC teams:
“This time, Bitcoin is about 100 days ahead [sur les cycles précédents] which gives a potential peak between mid-May and mid-June 2025 (…). »
CoinMarketCap Q3 Crypto Market Research Report – Source: Cointelegraph
But this anomaly is observed at the same time as other data which would tend to show the opposite:
“Despite this early acceleration, there are signs that infrastructure growth is slowing, which could indicate that broader market dynamics are changing. »
CoinMarketCap Q3 Crypto Market Research Report – Source: Cointelegraph
Speaking of slowing down some sectorsthe authors cite in particular the sector of loans cryptos, yield aggregate, of decentralized storageof theinteroperability or even the governance. And while those slow down, others likeartificial intelligence or the memecoins have already exploded upwards as if the bull run had already started!
So what should we think about it? Are things different This year ? Yes. For CMC analysts, several factors could call into question the usual dynamics and that’s not necessarily bad news.
Institutional adoption and crypto ETFs could change the rules of the game
L’institutional adoption cryptocurrency in general, and Bitcoin in particular, has definitively changed the rules of the game and nothing will be the same again. Companies like MicroStrategy or to a lesser extent Metaplanet have included Bitcoin in their business strategy and candidate Trump is even talking abouta store of value for his country!
Meanwhile, major media outlets cover the Bitcoin topic with less and lessa priori negative and what can we say about the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street which are almost commercially successful? never seen in the small world of exchange traded funds.
Finally, CMC experts note an increasingly obvious correlation between the price of Bitcoin and that of gold or technological stocks, which tends to make it “an asset like any other”.
For all these reasons, we may not have an ATH on the scheduled date, but before. Or later. Either way, four-year cycles could be history and we could be witnessing the first Supercycle in history (which some have already been talking about in 2021).
Teacher in the city as well as on stage, popularizing and explaining is my daily life. A practicing crypto-agnostic, I seek light in the darkness of the internets while trying to avoid factional quarrels! While waiting for the revelation, I am buying Bitcoin for my children and I am enthusiastic about projects aimed at the general public.
