For several months, the Middle East has been on fire. The clashes now concern Lebanon and Iran. The markets, particularly the oil market, are closely monitoring the situation on site. The risk of an increase in barrel prices cannot be ruled out.
The war in the Middle East could have repercussions on the price of a barrel of oil
For decades, tensions in the Middle East have had a significant impact on global markets, particularly oil prices. Today, a new wave of tensions in this strategic region could well trigger a spectacular rise in crude prices. In any case, the current situation revives fears of an oil crisis on a global scale. Thus, Brent, the world benchmark for the price of oil, is experiencing a sudden surge following an Iranian missile attack targeting Israel. For example, Brent jumped 2.87% in a few hours, reaching $73.72 per barrel. For its part, WTI, listed in New York, increased by 3%.
This renewed geopolitical tension quickly reversed the upward trend equity markets, with notable declines for the CAC 40 and the S&P 500. Such sudden increases are a reminder that the Middle East remains a critical epicenter for global energy supplies. Around 20 million barrels of oil pass through each day the Strait of Hormuz, representing almost a third of global maritime oil transport. A blockade of this strategic passage could plunge the markets into a new oil crisis.
The repercussions on economic sectors
Furthermore, the scenario of an oil shock has become credible again, especially since the oil market has been on a downward trend for a year. Experts fear that if tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, a return of the barrel to 100 dollars is no longer a simple hypothesis.
The surge in oil prices has immediate consequences for several economic sectors. The aviation sector is particularly affected, as evidenced by the brutal fall in the shares of Air France-KLM (-6.7%), Lufthansa (-3%) and IAG (-3.9%) in early October. Furthermore, the cost of fuel, which represents a significant portion of expenses for these companies, is becoming a key factor putting pressure on their financial results.
