The Paris Stock Exchange will remain closed this Wednesday, May 1 for Labor Day. This will also be the case elsewhere in Europe and in Hong Kong as well as in China, where they will remain closed until Friday May 3 inclusive. Wall Street and Tokyo, on the other hand, are open. Which explains why the major meetings of the day are scheduled across the Atlantic, with no less than six statistics on the agenda.
From 2:15 p.m., we will learn data for the month of April concerning the labor market, with job creations in the private sector as recorded by the ADP firm. The Bloomberg consensus expects 180,000 new positions, after the 184,000 in March. They will be followed at 3:45 p.m. by the PMI activity index in the manufacturing sector and the corresponding ISM, but more followed by operators for the extent of its history, a quarter of an hour later. At the same time the Jolts report on job offers and construction spending for March will be presented. We’ll end the day with the Department of Energy’s weekly oil inventories at 4:30 p.m.
What scenario for the Fed?
Or almost, since the big meeting of the day is set for 8 p.m., for the monetary policy decision of the Federal Reserve. Its president Jerome Powell will speak during his traditional press conference at 8:30 p.m. There is no question of a first rate cut (they will remain in the range of 5.25 to 5.50%), as the American economy remains strong for the moment while inflation is still at levels that are far too high, overall. case well beyond the 2% target that the central bank has set.
At this stage, the first relaxation is not expected before September. “ At the FOMC meeting on March 20, there were already some doubts about the wisdom of rapid monetary easing, commented the Oddo BHF firm at the start of the week. In six weeks, these doubts grew stronger. Not only did the activity and employment figures remain solid, but above all consumer prices (CPI) surprised upwards for the third time in a row. The disinflation movement has not made any progress since last fall. Is this a temporary interruption, a definitive stop, or worse, the start of a trend reversal? This is the key question for the Fed? “.
On the business side, the agenda is also American, with the quarterly accounts of Pfizer, Mastercard, eBay, Estée Lauder and Qualcomm.
