Relief for the government. While the rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s maintained their credit rating of France at a high level on Friday evening despite the skidding of public deficits in 2023 and 2024 and the country’s level of debt, the majority are proud. For her, the decision of the two agencies reinforces her economic policy while the opposition hoped for a deterioration to discredit it in the run-up to the European elections. For Jean-René Cazeneuve (Renaissance), maintaining grades is “un positive signal which validates our deficit reduction policy and the decisions taken at the start of the year as soon as the slowdown in growth was confirmed “. For his part, Gabriel Attal sees it as a sign of “ the credibility of France » and its attractiveness, particularly among investors.
“Investors have confidence in our country”, which is “the most attractive for foreign investments for the fourth consecutive year”, he said this Saturday, during a trip to the Manche department (west). “Everywhere in our country, you have investment projects, particularly industrial ones, which are being deployed,” he added, referring to the barometer carried out each year on a European scale by the EY firm.
It’s not about ” Magic “
“ Our country, like the whole world, is going through difficulties which are notably linked to the war in Ukraine, but France is doing better than others from an economic point of view. », also praised the Prime Minister, before detailing the good health of the job market.
This economic solidity “ is not the result of some form of magic “, but of the ” action of this government “, he argued.
The ratings assigned by the two agencies still classify French debt among those of “ high quality “. France lost its triple A in 2012, marking the safest sovereign debts, like that of Germany currently. In its press release, Fitch cited as France’s assets an economy ” vast and diverse “, institutions ” strong and efficient ” And ” recognized stability “. But on the other hand, its rating is weakened by public finances, in particular the high level of the country’s debt.
Lack of competition, French debt attracts investors more than ever
Their opinion on the solidity of the French debt was particularly watched after a series of bad news concerning public finances since February.
France’s public deficit has slipped sharply to 5.5% of GDP in 2023 instead of the 4.9% hoped for, mainly due to lower revenues than expected, and with 110.6% of GDP in debt, it has the third highest debt ratio in the EU after Greece and Italy. Since February, the government has had to urgently announce two packages of budgetary efforts of 10 billion euros each.
Objective: to fall below 3% deficits in 2027
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire immediately “ took note » of this news in a brief press release, adding that “itThis decision should invite us to redouble our determination to restore our public finances and meet the objective set by the President of the Republic: to be below 3% (of GDP, Editor’s note) in deficit in 2027 “. “ We will stick to our strategy based on growth and full employment, structural reforms and the reduction of public spending. » assures Bruno Le Maire, who will defend before the deputies on Monday, then before the senators on Tuesday, the Stability Program (“PSTAB”) and the forecasts of a return of the public deficit below 3% in 2027 that it contains.
Neither Fitch nor Moody’s believe that France’s public deficit will return below 3% of GDP in 2027, which is a European requirement
For Moody’s however, the outlook could improve if the government “rsucceeds in having and implementing measures » allowing a significant reduction in debt. But the outlook and the rating itself could conversely deteriorate in the future if the debt situation deteriorates more in France than in its ” peers “.
The government will still have to face on May 31 the rating of the most watched agency, S&P, which places it on the same line as Moody’s, at AA, but with a negative outlook, that is to say that it has warned that the rating could fall in the medium term.
