After months without advertisements of new American military aid to Ukraine, reports have emerged this weekend that a Patriot air defense system manufactured in the United States will be sent from Israel to the country in difficulty this summer. Following the public frustration of President Donald Trump towards his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, this decision is probably intended to be a signal for the determination of Washington and his desire to extend military support to Kyiv if Moscow refuses to accept American conditions.
The strategy will not work. Not only will the sending of additional air defenses to Ukraine will hardly pressure Putin, but that will not help Ukraine in short or long -term. Worse, this decision deepens American engagement and is more resources in a war that is peripheral to the fundamental interests of the United States.
Since his return to the White House in January, Trump has made the end of the war in Ukraine one of his main priorities. While forced Kyiv to accept significant concessions-even briefly cutting military aid and sharing information to force compliance-he offered Moscow favorable conditions to accept a cease-fire, including the promise to maintain Ukraine out of NATO, reduction of sanctions, and at least a Russian de facto control over the territories it has occupied since 2014.
This approach has aroused negative reactions, but it reflects the reality of the battlefield and the balance of powers between stakeholders. Since Russia has the militarily advantage, Washington has a limited lever on Putin. New sanctions, which Trump has threatened, are unlikely to change the calculation of the Russian president, and the United States cannot increase military aid in Ukraine given its already exhausted stocks.
In this context, the decision to send an additional patriot system to Ukraine is both futile and risky. One more patriot system in Ukraine will not radically change the course of war. Russia has already demonstrated its ability to overwhelm the Patriot system with low -cost drone swarms and missiles, further limiting its tactical value.
-In the short term, the defensive perspective of Ukraine will not change either. The system will not happen immediately, requiring a refurbishment which will take several months. The global shortage of interception missiles will continue to limit the effectiveness of the system, whatever its deployment. After all, air defense systems are not very useful without robust stocks of the missiles they need.
If Trump remains determined to negotiate an agreement, it should strengthen its initial strategy: to retain new military aid and offer significant incentives, such as the reduction of sanctions and limits on the integration of Ukraine into NATO. This would mean continuing to limit the new American military aid to Ukraine until a regulation is reached, and offer Putin incentives to convince him to abandon his advantage on the battlefield. So far, the carrots offered have not done the job.
A successful agreement will probably require a mixture of relief of sanctions, territorial concessions and limits on the military integration of Ukraine with the United States and Europe, as well as a reduction in the military presence of the United States in Europe-something that Washington has not yet put on the table.
Trump’s impatience towards Ukraine and Russia has become clear in recent weeks, but he should not leave that, nor detractors, keep him away from his initial instincts.
