In the event of candidacy of the president of the national rally in 2027, Jordan Bardella appears largely in a position of strength according to an Ifop survey. Only Édouard Philippe would so far be able to beat him in the second round. Bruno Retailleau is far from folding the match.
More than 10,000 people interviewed and hypotheses in a mess. An IFOP survey for the Hexagones Institute has tested many first -round possibilities for the next presidential election.
If such a survey is to be taken with precautions almost 24 months before the election in a very moving French and international political context, it gives an indication of the balance of power.
Bardella in Pole Position
First teaching of this study: barely a few weeks after the conviction of Marine Le Pen for “embezzlement of public funds”, the party remains in a position of force for the presidential election of 2027.
Whether it is the president of the deputies RN or Jordan Bardella, now considered an appeal after the sentence of ineligibility pronounced against the recoil carrier of the movement, the two potential candidates are positioned according to the scenarios still between 32 and 35% of the votes in the first round.
In the second round, the situation is a little different and positions the party’s owner as the best card to win in the case of a duel with Édouard Philippe. Marine Le Pen, who calls on his conviction, harvested 48% of votes in this hypothesis against the former Prime Minister with 52%. Jordan Bardella, he would play equal game with the president of Horizons.
These figures are however to be taken with great caution since 28% of those questioned do not formulate any intention to vote in these configurations.
The survey also tests several second -round hypotheses for Jordan Bardella – which are unlikely. The European deputy would win against Gabriel Attal (52/48) who entered the dance of the candidates in April as well as against Bruno Retailleau (53/47) who could embody the right in the event of a victory for the president of the LR. Jordan Bardella would prevail much more broadly against Jean-Luc Mélenchon (67/33).
Philippe, powerful candidate, gray mine for retailleau
Second teaching of this survey: in the event of numerous applications in the common base, between Gabriel Attal, the candidate LR whether Bruno Retailleau or Laurent Wauquiez and Édouard Philippe, it is the ex-government of the government who would be in the lead with 15% of the votes, but far behind Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen. In this configuration, Gabriel Attal would only harvest 8% of the vote.
Same diagnosis if the putative candidates who participated in the last governments unite: in this case, Édouard Philippe manages to collect 22% of the votes in the first round.
Third teaching: Bruno Retailleau may be much appreciated by LR activists and being one of the few heavy goods vehicles of the government of François Bayrou, it is far from folding the match and is between 7.5 and 10% of the potential votes. The only hypothesis that the Minister of the Interior passes the 14%mark is that of a candidacy of Gabriel Attal without Edward Philippe on the starting line. The two men would then play equal game.
The left in great difficulty
Last lesson: the distribution of forces on the left in this survey, which starts from the principle that there would necessarily be at least two distinct candidates, including that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
While several figures of the NFP argue for a joint candidacy, like the ecologist Marine Tondelier or the ephemeral candidate for Matignon Lucie Castets, the left is struggling in the event of several applications.
If the left was represented in the first round by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier and Fabien Roussel, the advantage would return slightly to the Public Place Place, with 15% of the voting intentions against 13% for the rebellious. But impossible with this score to qualify for the second round.
In all the other hypotheses tested, in the event of a single other candidacy from the NFP in front of him, Jean-Luc Mélenchon never exceeds the 13% mark and never passes the second step, any more than his competitor on the left.
Again, these figures are to be taken with care. The founder of rebellious France was often credited below 10% one to two years before the presidential election of 2022. The boss of France Insoumise was however the third man of the first round in 2022.
