Electricity: +10%, +20%… increases scheduled until the end of 2025, and their real impact on your budget

End of the price shield: an increase that has become inevitable

Since 2021, the pricing shield had made it possible to drastically limit the increase in electricity prices, capping annual increases around 4 % instead of more than 30 % planned without public intervention. Established to protect purchasing power in the face of the global energy crisis, this device is however very expensive in the state: more than 20 billion euros in 2023 according to official figures.

In 2025, The government has confirmed the gradual end of the shieldin particular under the pressure of European competition rules and budgetary constraints. Result : The prices of electricity will be readjusted in stepsto find a level closer to the real cost of production and routing.

According to the first estimates of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), Regulated prices should increase by +10 % in the summer of 2025before a new wave of +10 % at +15 % expected at the end of the year. The cumulation could therefore reach up to +20 % over the whole year.

What will be the impact on Your electricity bill?

These increases go mechanically weighing down the energy expenditure of households. To assess the real impact, you have to understand that electricity represents on average 9 % of the total budget of French householdsaccording to INSEE. A 20 % increase can therefore weigh heavily, especially for modest households and large families.

Concretely, for an average annual invoice of 1 200 € (EDF Base Blue Price for a 100 m² house with electric heating), an increase of 20 % means € 240 additional per year or 20 € more each month. For higher consumption, the gap becomes even more significant.

Here is a summary table of the forecast impact:

These estimates remain indicative: they may vary depending on the type of contract, the geographic area, the tariff option chosen (off -peak/full hours), as well as changes in distribution costs.

Why such a buandle of Price is it expected?

Several structural factors explain this surge in electricity prices. First of all, the cost of production has increased sharply since the war crisis linked to the war in Ukraine. Although gas prices have partially stabilized, the European electricity market remains indexed to the marginal production cost of productionstill largely dominated by gas power plants.

Ensuite, maintenance of the French nuclear parkaging, requires massive investments to extend the lifespan of reactors, estimated at several tens of billions of euros by EDF. These expenses are inevitably passed on to the final invoice.

Finally, the energy transitionwith the development of renewable energies, also involves adaptation costs of the transport and distribution network, also funded by consumers.

So, The return to prices reflecting the real costs is now presented as inevitable by public authorities.

Which will be the most affected By these increases?

Households heated to electricity The first concerned will logically be. In France, about 30 % of main residences Use electricity as a main heating source, according to ADEME. For these homes, The increases will have a multiplied effect On the winter bill, maximum consumption period.

Modest retirees and householdsoften owners of poorly insulated individual houses, will also be part of the most vulnerable categories. If certain aids (type energy check) will continue to be paid, their amount remains largely insufficient to compensate for such increases over an entire year.

As for the tenants, even without direct contract with an energy supplier (when the heating is collective), they will also undergo An impact on co -ownership chargeswhich will increase mechanically.

How to limit the impact on son budget ?

Faced with this situation, Adopting energy saving gestures becomes essential. Reducing the heating temperature by a few degrees, installing a programmable thermostat, isolating your accommodation correctly, or changing supplier for a more competitive offer, are all solutions to consider.

Some experts also advise to review your subscription : Adjusting the power subscribed according to its real needs can save on the fixed share of the invoice.

In the longer term, Invest in high -performance equipment (heat pump, solar panels) is judicious, but supposes a substantial initial budget, often inaccessible for the most modest households without reinforced public aid.