What if Jean-Marc Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille, became pope? The cardinal appears on the lists of the favorites of several experts from the Vatican and Italian media.
Will the next pope be French? It is a possibility, and even a seriously advanced hypothesis in the Italian press. The names of several potential successors of Pope Francis are cited in the corridors of the Vatican and in the press, about fifteen surnames returns with more insistence and among them is that of Cardinal Jean-Marc Avine. The 66 -year -old religious participates in the conclave, alongside the 132 other cardinals authorized to vote because they are under the age of 80.
The Bookmakers Polymarket site, which gives a very good vision of projections of people ready to play their money, place Jean-Marc Aveline among the big favorites to become the next Pope, and installs it in the top 10 “papabilis”. Of course, given the significant number of cardinals likely to be elected sovereign pontiff, the percentage of “chances of prevail” remains relatively low. It is actually a rating and not a probability.
A cardinal near Pope Francis and his ideas
Jean-Marc Aveline was created Cardinal by Pope Francis on August 27, 2022. The religious was also a relative of the deceased sovereign pontiff and he shared with him several political ideas on tolerance about migrants and the vision of a less European-centered church. He is also a defender of interreligious speech and says he is in favor of dialogue with Islam. It is these positions similar to those defended by Pope Francis and favorable to “the opening of the Church” which make the religious one of the favorites to become the future pope.
But this rather progressive line on certain subjects has already earned criticism from Pope Francis, it is clear that the Vatican has many cardinals who are less comfortable with this orientation which has been able to hit on certain aspects, in particular concerning tolerance advocated for people openly expressing their homosexuality. The path drawn by Pope Francis, on an opening line, could be disputed, the currents working for a more traditionalist Church are not about to disappear.
In addition to the ideology and the ideas he defends, Jean-Marc Aveline has some shortcomings which, to complicate the task to be a pope at ease in the Vatican: man does not speak fluent Italian, official language of the micro-state, even if he has made clear progress in recent months. At 66, the cardinal also appears to be very young in the eyes of many to ensure the charge of Sovereign Pontiff. But all of this is the opinion of some very traditionalist cardinals.
Jean-Marc Aveline, a figure from Marseille
Jean-Marc Aveline is best known until then in France and among the Catholics of the Vatican as the man who has recently become the Archbishop of Marseille. Born in Oran, Algeria, in 1958 in a family of black feet, he grew up in the working-class districts of the Marseille city of which he became an emblematic figure. He was ordered a priest at the Archdiocese of Marseille in 1984 and had his entire religious career there until becoming a cardinal in 2022. More recently, he was elected president of the Conference of Bishops of France on April 2, 2025 for a position scheduled for July 1.
The Archbishop of Marseille seems appreciated by the inhabitants of the Marseille city. “He is a very pleasant person that we come across regularly. He is a simple man, a man of heart. I think he could well take on the role of Pope who is still not a thin task,” said a faithful to our colleagues from RTL before the Conclave’s decision. When another adds: “Whatever the pope, you have to look at what he works, why he works and what he does”.
A relative of Pope Francis in Marseille
Having become close to Pope Francis over the years, Jean-Marc Aveline is one of the people behind the Sovereign Pontiff’s trip to Marseille in September 2023. It was he who welcomed the Pope for his giant mass given at the Vélodrome stadium, in front of 57,000 people. Cardinal Aveline then praised an “unforgettable” visit to the Pope, which he made “Marseille”. He had also taken over the famous slogan of OM supporters, welcoming that the Marseillais are “forever the first” French to welcome a mass of Pope Francis. An allusion that had amused the sovereign pontiff, himself a big fan of football.
After the announcement of the death of Pope Francis, the Archbishop of Marseille had presided over a mass “of homage and action of graces” at the Cathedral of the Major. “Thank you Pape Francis, for having aroused in our diocese and throughout the Church, in the Mediterranean and all over the world a new thrill of faith, hope, and charity,” he wrote in a press release.
16:02 – The archbishop very well seen by his colleagues
If he is well seen by the inhabitants of Marseille, Jean-Marc Aveline also has a good reputation with other religious in the region. The archbishop of Algiers Mgr Vesco, for example, has drawn a very complimentary portrait of his colleague to Franceinfo. “He is a brother and a friend, but I think he is a brother and a friend for many people, very brilliant intellectually, doctrinally extremely formed and who has the whole dimension of interreligious dialogue,” he said. “For me, he has a lot of qualities to be elected Pope,” he even added.
08:15 – When was the last French pope elected?
The election of a French pope dates back to a long time ago. The last French pope was called Grégoire XI, his real name Pierre Roger de Beaufort, and had been elected in 1370, more than 650 years ago. He died in 1378. 16 Popes out of the 266 were French, making France the second country, after Italy, to have provided the most pontiff sovereigns. The first was Sylvestre II in 999. This peak of 16 popes in almost 380 years is explained by the rise of French influence in medieval Christianity.
05/07/25 – 19:30 – Italian cardinals in favor of Jean -Marc Aveline?
His name returns with more and more insistence. Guest of Rtl matin This Wednesday, May 7, the theologian Jean-François Colosimo believes that Jean-Marc Aveline is likely to win, and perhaps even this Thursday or Friday. “What is rumored is that Italian cardinals have already opted for him,” said the historian. He describes him as a man with a “great intellectuality” and with “a very strong sense of the people”. “I think he would make a very big pope who could bring back, because that is the problem of the Catholic Church today, of mediation, of the connection between trends that today no longer really speak to each other or no longer really understand. The concern of the pope is unity, he would be a completely remarkable pontiff of unity,” he convinced.
05/07/25 – 16:21 – A fairly “serious” candidacy
Does Archbishop Jean-Marc Aveline have its chances? Quite. According to Aymeric Pourbaix, journalist at the controls of the meeting meeting, from Rome, his candidacy “is considered quite seriously”, especially in the local press. To justify this, he recalls that he pronounced his obelé in Italian, in part raising the doubts around his Italian level. His rating would be going up and he would notably have his chances in the event of blocking and could be “a consensus candidacy” in the line of Pope Francis.
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