According to an Ifop survey published this Monday, a tight duel in the second round between Edouard Philippe and the candidate of the RN, Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen, is at this stage the dominant hypothesis for the presidential election. The RN candidate comes far in the first round, whatever the configuration and without significant difference between Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella.
A tight duel in the second round between Edouard Philippe and the RN candidate, Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen, is at this stage the dominant hypothesis for the presidential election, according to a large survey with 10,000 people and published on Monday. In this Ifop survey carried out in April for the hexagon statistics observatory, the RN candidate arrives in the lead in the 1st round, with 32 to 35% of voting intentions, whatever the configuration tested and without significant difference between Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella.
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Edouard Philippe marks the steps in second position
Far behind, Edouard Philippe arrives clearly in second position if he is the sole candidate of the central block and does better than Gabriel Attal in this hypothesis (22% against 14%). The survey starts from the principle that there will be at least two candidates on the left, that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and another (Raphaël Glucksmann or François Ruffin).
In the scenario where the left is only represented by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann, the advantage comes up slightly to the latter, with 15% of the voting intentions against 13%. Conversely, if François Ruffin is opposed to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the latter retains an advance of 2 points (12% against 10%).
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Retailleau would do better than Philippe
On the right, Bruno Retailleau would do better than Laurent Wauquiez but without exceeding 10% in the event of the presence of Edouard Philippe. In the second round, the match would be open: 50/50 in the event of face to face Philippe – Bardella. And 52% against 48% in favor of Philippe opposed to Le Pen.
However, in both cases, 28% of respondents do not formulate any intention to vote at this stage, which is a high figure. The survey also tests several hypotheses, less likely at this stage, second round for Jordan Bardella who would win against Gabriel Attal (52/48), Bruno Retailleau (53/47) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (67/33). But there too many voters refuse to consider such scenarios, up to 41% for a duel Mélenchon/Bardella.
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The investigation, which does not constitute an anticipation but gives an indication of the balance of power and dynamics at time T, was carried out from April 11 to 30 first with a sample of 9,128 people registered on the electoral lists, extracted from a sample of 10,000 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over. Hexagon is a fairly recent observatory that wants to describe “France in figures”.
