Ever since pope Francis died on April 21, Cardinal Pietro Parolin has been bettors’ favorite as his successor. But, not surprisingly, what gamblers think and what 133 cardinals decide can be completely different.
Parolin’s probability of becoming the next pope based on online bets has risen as high as 40% in recent days, but the most probable cardinal wasn’t the one selected a dozen years ago. On Thursday, the cardinals continued the papal conclave at the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel with no pope elected in day’s first vote.
“Outsiders shouldn’t be discounted in the next pope betting market,” Sam Eaton, U.K. manager for Oddschecker, wrote Tuesday in an email. “Back in 2013, Jorge Mario Bergoglio was 50/1 (2% probability) just two days before being elected.”
Where the odds stand for the next pope on different betting markets
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Could Cardinal Jose Tolentino de Mendonça from Portugal be the next long shot elected to the papacy? Eaton said de Mendonça has accounted for 7% of all bets placed on Oddschecker in the past month, but he still has 50/1 odds and the 12th most likely candidate based on betting on their site.
So if betting markets failed to predict that Francis would become pope in 2013, how good an indicator are the millions of dollars of bets currently being placed around the world?
Harry Crane, a Rutgers University statistics professor, studies election outcomes and the predictions made by betting markets. He doesn’t expect conclave betting markets to rival the accuracy of those predicting events like elections, which offer vast amounts polling and other data, and draw billions of dollars in bets. But he does think there’s a good chance they have narrowed down the field.
“Does it have more predictability than if you just picked one out of 130 cardinals, and you gave them all the same chance of winning? I would say ‘yeah probably.’
“If you have specific information about five of the cardinals, or maybe one or two specific ones, you could get quite a bit of information about what’s going to happen,” Crane said. “There’s only 130 of them.”
Who are the favorites to be the next pope
Within hours of Francis’ death, betting on sites such as Polymarket, a cypto trading platform, pushed Parolin, a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives, ahead of the rest of the potential candidates. He remains the favorite in most betting markets.
Who could become the next pope?
Details about the top candidates to become Francis’ successor:
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Position: Vatican diplomat
Nationality: Italian
Age: 70
What else? Parolin is seen as a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives. He has been a church diplomat for most of his life and was Francis’ secretary of state (often called the “deputy pope”) since 2013, the year Francis was elected.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle
Position: Former archbishop of Manila
Nationality: Filipino
Age: 67
-What else? Tagle is often called the “Asian Francis” because of his similar commitment to social justice. If elected he would be the first modern-era pope from Asia.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson
Position: Vatican official; president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace
Nationality: Ghanaian
Age: 76
What else? Turkson’s background includes tending to congregations in Ghana in addition to leading several Vatican offices. He comes from one of the most dynamic regions of the church, which is struggling against secularism in its European heartlands. He would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.
Matteo Maria Zuppi
Position: Archbishop of Bologna
Nationality: Italian
Age: 69
What else? Zuppi is called “the Italian Bergoglio” because of his affinity with Francis. Zuppi is known as a “street priest” who focuses on migrants and the poor and cares little about pomp and protocol. He would be the first Italian pope since 1978.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Position: Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem
Nationality: Italian
Age: 59
What else? Pizzaballa has served in Jerusalem and has advocated for peace in the Middle East. He has criticized the Hamas invasion of Israel and Israeli attacks on civilians in Gaza. His relative youth may hurt his chance of being selected.
Cardinal Peter Erdo
Position: Former president of the Council of Bishops Conferences of Europe
Nationality: Hungarian
Age: 72
What else? Erdo is seen as another compromise candidate. He ranks as a conservative in theology but is also considered pragmatic. He never clashed openly with Francis, unlike other tradition-minded clerics.
