The index ofx reaches its lowest level in three years due to pricing uncertainty
The Doxy index has maintained a sharp drop throughout the month under pressure from the pricing spiral. More specifically, on April 2 was declared by President Trump as the “Liberation Day” of America with the imposition of large -scale reciprocal tariffs on many business partners, including the increase in prices on goods imported from China to 145 %. However, he decided to suspend the imposition of reciprocal prices for 90 days.
In addition, the downward pressure on the US dollar has increased while President Trump continuously criticized and exerted pressures on the Federal Reserve in order to dismiss the president of the Fed. In this context, the index Dxy reached a three-year low at 98.3 on April 21 (-10.2% YTD).
On the front of economic data, the American manufacturing sector continued to lower for the second consecutive month, the ISM PMI index reaching 48.7 points in April, the supply chain being affected by new tariff policies. Inflation slowed slightly, the PCE index increased by 2.3 % in annual shift in March, compared to 2.7 % in February. At the same time, consumer expenditure has recorded their highest increase for more than two years, households having intensified their purchases before the taxation of new taxes.
Faced with many uncertain risks and gloomy economic prospects, the American consumer confidence index fell to its second lower level since 1952. Consequently, the dollar dropped by 4.8% over the month at 99.2 at the end of April (-9.3% compared to the start of the year).
The exchange rate remained high throughout the month despite the drop in the US dollar
-Although the Dxy index fell heavily 9.7 % compared to its 2025 peak, the USD/VND interbank exchange rate remained high in April. MBS experts believe that the high exchange rate is partly due to the following factors: first, in April, the public treasury continued to buy US dollars from commercial banks for a total value of US $ 110 million, which has also somewhat tightened the supply of foreign currencies. Secondly, in the context of a commercial situation faced with numerous uncertainties linked to unpredictable pricing policies from the United States, the demand for foreign currency of companies often tends to increase. Finally, the sharp drop in interbank interest rates to their lowest level in 13 months at the end of the month caused the vnd-USD interest rate differential to reversal at its highest negative level since the start of the year.
Consequently, the interbank exchange rate increased by 1.4% compared to the end of March to reach 25,994 VND/USD (+2.1% compared to the start of the year). The exchange rate on the free market increased to 26,470 VND/USD, while the central rate was listed at 24,956 VND/USD, corresponding to increases of 2.8% and 2.5% respectively compared to the beginning of 2025.
MBS expects the exchange rate to fluctuates in a range of 25,500 to 26,000 VND/USD in 2025, because the budgeting plans of the new administration, combined with stricter immigration policies, as well as high interest rates and relatively high protectionism in the United States, should support the increase in the value of the dollar in 2025. should create many challenges for Vietnam’s export activities and the attraction of FDIs in the coming times and could put pressure on the already modest exchange reserves of Vietnam after having to sell more than $ 9 billion US dollars last year.
However, so far, the internal factors continue to record positive results such as: trade surplus (~ 3.79 billion USD in 4m2025), IDE capital disbursed (USD 6.74 billion, +7.3 % in annual sliding) and the recovery of international tourist arrivals ( +23.8 % in annual sliding at 4M2025). As a result, this should continue to support the VND.
Source : https://baodaknong.vn/ty-gia-van-neo-o-muc-cao-du-dong-usd-suy-giam-251744.html
