A change in size for global climate governance
“Previously, the United States practiced the empty chair policy in terms of climaterecalls Nicolas Berghmans, researcher in climate and energy policies at the Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). Now it looks like they divest climate architecture squarely. The question being how far they will go“. The withdrawal Affected by the United States redistributes cards from global climate governance. “”It will certainly achieve the objectives set in the Paris Agreementadvance Romain Weikmans. However, the international community can manage without the United States. This is already the case in other areas such as weapons, biodiversity or human rights“.
China in ambush
China, which represents 30 % of global greenhouse gas emissions, invests massively in the transition to renewable energy. The Empire led by Xi Jinping had already announced in 2020 its ambition to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, ten years after the objective that the European Union has set itself. What to make them major allies to mitigate climate disruption? France wishes to embark on this path, to compensate for the American -style putting.
The Trump government dismisses the authors of a crucial climate report: “Trying to bury this report will not change scientific facts”
A climate reverse by which Washington also seeks to attract other states to its wake. Saudi Arabia could follow the movement, but most nations will choose the European Union and China camp, judges Nicolas Berghmans. “”The climate policy of these two actors is more predictable than that of the United States, and the countries most affected by global warming no longer want to take a risk in this area“.
-America first, but at what price?
The United States’s brake stroke would mainly concern international climate policy, in a global rejection movement of multilateralism initiated by Donald Trump. The real estate magnate wishes above all to prosper the economy of its country. But it does not have all the levers. “”The climate transition is undergoing its course in the American states, it will be necessary to see how the federal state can slow its progression locallydevelops Nicolas Berghmans. Pressure is put to slow down the effort, but it takes time administratively and judicially. And then, it is the states that manage their energy policy“.
The American government justifies the cuts made in the public service by a concern for economy. But some believe that the republican administration could regret it. “”Trump makes a big mistake in my opinionestimates Xavier Fettweis, climatologist at the University of Liège. A consensus exists to say that climate change negatively impacts the economy. And it will be amplier … I therefore do not understand the calculation of the administration.“
Trump removes the office in charge of American climate diplomacy
COP 30 as the first test
Scheduled next November, COP 30, which will take place in Belem (Brazil), will make it possible to learn the first lessons from the American withdrawal from global climate governance. “”It will be necessary to see if the United States play a role of observation or obstruction“, Roman preface Weikmans. An always relevant world meeting, given the defection of the United States?”Knowing that they represent 15 % of greenhouse gas emissions, this means that the remaining 85 % are gathered around the table for more than a week to discuss“Summarizes Nicolas Berghmans.
