The European Commission presented a plan to eliminate all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. This decision marked a new stage in the energy policy of the European Union, three years after the start of the invasion of Ukraine. Russian gas still represented 9% of the Union gas consumption between January and April 2025, according to KPLER.
A progressive but incomplete decline since 2021
Before the Ukrainian conflict, Russia provided 45% of the gas imported by the European Union, combining deliveries by gas pipelines and those of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2024, Russia remained the second gas supplier of the Union, behind Norway, with 18% of deliveries per gas pipeline and 20% of LNG supplies, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
Russian gas remains used for domestic heating, industry and electricity production. Despite the reduction in flows by gas pipelines, in particular with the transit cessation via Ukraine on January 1, 2025, the Russian LNG volumes delivered to European ports have not stopped.
A strategy based on LNG
The EU strongly turned to LNG following the energy crisis of 2021. In 2024, 37% of the Union gas imports came from LNG, against 63% per gas pipeline. The LNG market remains under tension, however. According to analyst Jan-Eric Fähnrich from Rystad Energy, the offer should only become surplus from 2028.
The United States, which ensures 45% of European IMP imports, remain the main partners, followed by Qatar. Norway, North Africa and potentially Mozambique could help diversify the supply. European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said he wanted to avoid any new dependence, including vis-à-vis Washington.
-Legal and political obstacles
The plan provides for the prohibition of new contracts with Russian companies and short -term contracts from the end of 2025. The total judgment of imports is then set at 2027. This roadmap, subject to the European Parliament and to the Member States, implies sensitive negotiations. Some countries like Hungary, still close to Moscow, could slow down the adoption of the text.
Brussels favors a legislative proposal, which requires a qualified majority, rather than sanctions which would impose the unanimity of the 27. Part of the contracts in progress, in particular those concluded with Shell, Totalenergies, Sefe and Naturgy, could arouse legal debates on their termination.
Concentration of flows and residual dependence
The International Energy Agency notes that Belgium, France and Spain have welcomed 85% of total Russian LNG imports since the start of the year. A fraction of these volumes was then re -exported to other European countries, which raises the question of traceability and effective application of the plan.
“By 2028, we should enter into an excess LNG offer phase worldwide,” Jan-Eric Fähnrich told AFP, while recalling that current projects would only be operational from 2026 or 2027.
