Election day in the United States: a vote under high tension with an uncertain outcome | US elections 2024

After an incredible campaign marked by an assassination attempt against Donald Trump, as well as another alleged attempt, and the entry on the scene of Kamala Harris after the withdrawal of Joe Biden from the race, it is presidential election day in the UNITED STATES.

Will the results be as close as the latest polls indicate? One thing is certain, this day promises to be as unpredictable as it is tense.

Already, more than 78 of the 244 million Americans eligible to vote have made their choice by mail or in advance. Election promises related to immigration and the economy, two issues that polarized the American electorate during the campaign, could have a determining influence.

Polls show that Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump each have about a 50/50 chance of moving into the White House.

This is one of the reasons why the election results may not be known as early as Tuesday evening. Remember that in 2020, Joe Biden was declared the winner just four days after the election.

Close polls and key states

Eyes will be particularly focused on seven pivotal states, where the results could tip the scales for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Polls in these coveted states close between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

The first polls close at 6 p.m. EST in some counties in Indiana and Kentucky. The last polls close at 1 a.m. EST Wednesday in Alaska.

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The first significant results will be known around 7 or 7:30 p.m. (EST), when polls close in the key states of Georgia and North Carolina.

If Kamala Harris won in these two states, she would have a good head start over her rival Donald Trump. If Mr. Trump wins the favor of voters in these two states, he would be very close to victory.

It is Pennsylvania, where the first results could be known at midnight, which could settle the debate.

However, the results may be delayed in several states, notably in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where it is not possible to begin counting postal votes before the polls close.

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Will Trump wait for the results?

Many fear that Donald Trump will take advantage of possible delays in the unveiling of the results to sow doubt on the integrity of the electoral process and encourage his supporters to demonstrate.

Remember that in 2020, the Republican candidate did not wait for the official results before proclaiming himself the winner. Since then, Mr. Trump has continued to falsely claim that his defeat by Democratic President Joe Biden was the result of fraud committed in several states.

For months, in each of his partisan rallies, Donald Trump, who has never acknowledged his defeat in 2020 except through lip service, has accused the Democrats of having cheated and of continuing to do so. Mr. Trump said it was the only way Vice President Kamala Harris could win.

Last Thursday, on social media, Mr. Trump wrote: We caught them cheating. We caught them cheating in Pennsylvania.

The Republican candidate falsely claimed that non-citizen voting was a widespread problem, that there was no verification of overseas or military ballots, and that election officials were using early voting to commit fraud.

While he encourages his supporters to vote by mail, Donald Trump has often repeated that these ballots are illegitimate for him.

His false claims add to the staggering amount of misinformation circulating on social media.

For example, in a post on X that went viral, a conservative activist claimed that there was fraud in Erie County because 53 voters were registered at the same Catholic church address. However, it was not at all about electoral fraud: 55 nuns from the Benedictine order of Erie live at this address.

Last Friday, several U.S. intelligence agencies said Russia released a fake video online alleging that people of Haitian descent voted repeatedly in Georgia.

On alert for possible violent events

Last month, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security have warned of the possibility that election-related grievances could incite American extremists, who believe the electoral process is fraudulent, to commit acts of violence before and after the November elections.

Some domestic violent extremists likely see public places, such as partisan rallies, ballot drop-off locations, and voter registration locations, as attractive targets.we can read in this bulletin.

Authorities are investigating ballot box fires in Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington, where hundreds of ballots were destroyed or damaged a week ago.

This is why security has been reinforced in several polling stations. In some places, bulletproof glass was installed and election workers were provided with portable panic buttons.

At Maricopa (New window)the largest county in Arizona and the fourth most populous in the United States, snipers and drones monitor polling stations and social media monitoring is carried out to detect any threats and combat the spread of false information to voters.

Residents of this county also have access to live images, 24 hours a day, to observe the vote counting. This county was the target of protests by disgruntled Donald Trump supporters when Joe Biden was declared the winner in 2020.

At least two states, Nevada and Washington, have activated the National Guard in case of unrest. The Arizona secretary of state, responsible for certifying the results, said he was wearing a bulletproof vest (New window) in case of attack.

In recent years, election officials have been inundated with threats of violence. According to a Reuters investigation (New window)there have been at least 300 cases of political violence since the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, including at least 51 incidents this year. Two weeks before the November 5 presidential election, these cases are part of the largest and most sustained increase in political violence in the United States since the 1970s.

The world eagerly awaits the results

The results of this election are not only eagerly awaited by Americans, but also by the leaders of many countries around the world.

In Canada, the return of Donald Trump is raising fears of the possibility of a new tariff war. On the other hand, the Democratic Party also relies on protectionism in the hope of protecting jobs in the states of the Rust Belt in the northeast of the country, where heavy industry is traditionally concentrated.

The outcome of the November 5 presidential election could also prove decisive for the future of military aid delivered by the United States to Ukraine. If Kamala Harris promised unwavering support for kyiv, Donald Trump has often questioned the merits of financial support from the United States and even declared that he would resolve the conflict in 24 hours. Mr. Trump also continues to threaten to withdraw from theI’LL TAKE.

In the case of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel. Nevertheless, it is clear that Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu does not hide his preference for Republican candidate Donald Trump, who has opposed a ceasefire in the past and who told Mr. Netanyahu: Do what you have to do. In return, Kamala Harris expressed serious concerns about the scale of human suffering and deaths in Gaza.

China has not said whether it would prefer to witness Donald Trump’s victory or that of Kamala Harris. Both candidates have not defined a clear policy towards China. Mr. Trump threatens to impose more tariffs on China, while praising President Xi Jinping.

The Republican candidate did not confirm whether he would defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China, while the Democratic candidate reiterated that the United States supports Taiwan’s ability to defend itself.