a “crucial” election for Europe, in terms of strategic and commercial relations

Tuesday's vote is of considerable importance for the European Union. In particular on two main subjects: defense and commercial relations between the two shores of the Atlantic.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are continuing their campaigns, both presenting themselves as saviors of the United States before the election on Tuesday, November 4. This election is still uncertain and its outcome worries the world, particularly in Brussels, which is the seat of the European institutions but also the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

First of all, this American presidential election could be crucial in terms of defense. The military security of the European continent will be partly decided on Tuesday. For the moment, this security depends greatly on what the military in Brussels call the “American defense umbrella”. What will happen to this alliance, in the face of a Russia that does not disarm on Europe's eastern borders, and in the face of increasing threats of hybrid war?

Kamala Harris has not spoken much on the subject but Europeans have not forgotten that Donald Trump, when he was president, got angry with his allies whom he accused of not contributing enough to the budget of the 'NATO. “This American election is the most important of the European elections this year”explains Camille Grand, former deputy secretary general of the transatlantic alliance and today heads the Defense program of the European Council on International Relations.

“This US election really poses a whole series of questions. Immediate questions about the future of Ukraine and longer-term questions about the transatlantic defense relationship. The question is how strong the commitment of the Americans alongside the Europeans.”

Camille Grand

at franceinfo

A break or a continuity, the question also arises in economic terms. Even if, “the United States remains the United States”as an expert on these subjects in Brussels confides, the protectionist temptation is there. That of attracting companies to cutting-edge sectors with massive subsidies is still there too.

The real difference between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris concerns trade relations between the European Union and the United States. “In the case of a Kamala Harris victory, we would have much more continuity with the presidency of Joe Bidenexplains Elvire Fabry, specialist in commercial geopolitics at the Jacques Delors Institute. Whereas in the case of a Donald Trump victory, a real trade war would be launched and the Europeans are already seeing how they would respond to customs duties which would be between 10% and 20% additional. .”

Double impact feared in Europe: a reduction in exports and a new surge of Chinese products, due to restricted commercial outlets in the United States.