Germany: Olaf Scholz gets reprieve from AfD

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, increasingly weakened at home, got a reprieve on Sunday with a narrow victory for his Social Democratic party over the far right. in a key regional election.

According to estimates by public television channels ARD and ZDF, the SPD is credited with just over 31% of the vote, compared to just over 29% for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at the end of this election in Brandenburg, a regional state which surrounds the capital Berlin in the east of the country.

“It’s a very strong result”

This score reflects a new breakthrough for the German far right – it had obtained 23.5% in 2019 – after two already record scores in two other regional elections on September 1, in Thuringia, which the AfD had won, and in Saxony, where it had come just behind the conservatives.

“This is a very strong result,” said AfD co-chair Tino Chrupalla. In the future, “the AfD will be indispensable,” he told ZDF. The other co-chair Alice Weidel has made a date for “the legislative elections” scheduled in a year.

Unexpected success of the SPD

The Brandenburg result is nevertheless a disappointment for this anti-migrant and pro-Russian movement, which until recently was ahead of the Social Democrats in the polls.

For the SPD, this is an unexpected success, as it has been losing ground in every election for months and, like Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has reached record levels of unpopularity at the national level.

Dietmar Woidke acclaimed

This victory owes little to Olaf Scholz and much to the head of the regional government of Brandenburg, Dietmar Woidke. In power in the region since 2013, this social democrat remains very popular and had transformed the vote into a plebiscite on his personality and an election for or against the extreme right. He had warned that he would withdraw if he did not come out on top.

“Our goal from the beginning was to prevent our region from being marked with the brown seal” of the victorious extreme right, Dietmar Woidke said happily. The SPD has made significant progress compared to the previous election in 2019, when it reached 26.2%.

Relief for Olaf Scholz

Even by a narrow margin, this regional victory offers a respite to Olaf Scholz, at a time when he appears to be more criticized than ever at the national level, one year before the legislative elections for which the polls place the conservative opposition in pole position.

Its three-party coalition, which also includes Greens and Liberals, is torn by growing disagreements. The chairman of the FDP Liberals, Christian Lindner, has not ruled out leaving it this week if the three parties fail to agree “this autumn” on common priorities. The conservatives already have their candidate, having designated CDU leader Friedrich Merz this week.

AfD driven by insecurity

Riding on the discontent of the inhabitants of the former GDR, a particularly fertile ground due to persistent inequalities since reunification, the AfD is, for its part, carried by the return to the forefront of debates on security and immigration.

A series of attacks with suspected Islamist motives have rocked Germany since late August, including a triple stabbing in Solingen (west) during a public festival for which a 26-year-old Syrian was arrested.

In Brandenburg, immigration is the number one concern for voters, according to a recent poll. “Of course, we have to help people, but we can’t take in too many of them here,” says Edeltraud Wendland, 82, in Potsdam. The country has a record number of refugees, with 3.5 million people, including 1.2 million Ukrainians.

Success of newcomer BSW

As in Saxony and Thuringia, the brand new populist party BSW, founded at the beginning of the year by Sahra Wagenknecht, who came from the radical left, recorded an immediate success with around 12%. Very virulently against immigration, this party which wants to stop arms deliveries to Ukraine, could possibly play the decisive role of kingmaker.

The Social Democrats hope to continue to govern Brandenburg in a coalition with the conservatives (12%) and the Greens, but the latter are not sure of reaching the sufficient threshold of 5% to remain in the regional parliament.

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