How much is Jake Evans worth? – VAT Sports

What is Jake Evans worth? A simple question but one that almost everyone is asking themselves these days.

The Montreal Canadiens forward is currently having the best season of his career, at all levels. Offensively, if he maintains this pace, he will approach 20 goals and 45 points, which would be, by far, his best career production after the 29 points in 72 games that he collected in 2021-2022.

Now the debate rages among fans and observers: Should Kent Hughes trade Jake Evans, who will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, by the trade deadline, or should he secure to retain their rights?

As with any good dilemma, there are pros and cons. We tried to assess, for you, how much Evans deserves in his next contract and, conversely, what he could bring to the Canadiens if they decide to part with him by March 7.

A remarkable season that distorts the situation?

To try to establish Evans’ value, we based ourselves on several factors.

We first asked the Sportlogiq firm to establish a list of players with a similar impact to Evans this season, in all facets of the game.

And the results are surprising. The five players whose statistical profile most closely matched that of Evans this season are: Anthony Cirelli (Tampa Bay), Brayden Schenn (St. Louis), Mikael Granlund (San Jose), Morgan Frost (Philadelphia) and Alex Wennberg (San Jose).

Besides Frost, who is in the last year of a two-year contract that earns him $2.1 million per season, these are all players who currently command between $5 million and $6.5 million annually.

And, just to be clear, we’re not saying that’s what Evans is worth! Rather, it is proof of the remarkable season he is currently having.

But bringing names like Schenn or Cirelli to the negotiating table would certainly be a rejection for the Canadian, for the simple reason that this is Jake Evans’ first really good offensive season in the National Hockey League (NHL).

The big question remains whether this is just an exception or whether it has actually hatched. Looking at these figures, we have no choice but to think that this is more the exception than the rule.

Currently, Evans has an impressive 25.6% shooting percentage. In other words, he scores every four shots he directs on net. This pace is almost unsustainable for a player like Evans, since he belongs to the NHL’s elite. To compare, Leon Draisaitl (22.8%), Mark Scheifele (25.5%) and Sam Reinhart (23.1%) are also among the best at this level, and we are talking about elite offensive players.

Other comparables

One of the recently signed contracts that got people talking is that of Ottawa Senators forward Ridly Greig. The 22-year-old forward signed a four-year deal that will earn him $3.25 million per season.

According to Sportlogiq, Evans’ impact on his team is more marked, both offensively and defensively, than that of Greig who, it must be admitted, is not having his best season.

However, he is 22 and would have become a restricted free agent at the end of the season, making his negotiating power less than that of Evans, who can simply decide to leave and get whatever amount he wants elsewhere.

Brett Howden, of the Vegas Golden Knights, is also a player whose new contract (five years at $2.5 million annually) was linked to the Evans situation, especially since he would also have become an unrestricted free agent .

However, Howden is not experiencing the offensive development of the CH player this season and we can bet that we can afford to accept a little less in a market like Vegas, one of the most tax-advantaged in the NHL.

Taking all of this into consideration, Evans could very well justify a salary increase of at least $3.5 million to $4 million per season, for a period of four years.

And exchanging it, what would it bring in?

Photo Getty Images / AFP

If Evans’ demands are deemed too high by CH management, they will have to analyze the option of exchanging him.

But at what cost? TSN journalist Darren Dreger recently reported in an interview with a Montreal radio station that the Philadelphia Flyers were requesting a first-round pick for forward Scott Laughton and that at least eight teams had told him that it wouldn’t happen. So if Laughton is worth a second-round pick, is Evans worth that much?

For the more optimistic, there is a parallel to be drawn with Artturi Lehkonen. The CH winger had done great service for the team, without producing amazing offensive numbers, and was ultimately traded in exchange for a second-round pick and Justin Barron, a former first-round prospect.

Before leaving Montreal, Lehkonen had scored 149 points in 396 games, for an average of 0.38 points per game. Currently, Evans is averaging 0.37 points per game since the start of his career.

Last year, Alexander Wennberg, a player whose profile resembles that of Evans this season, was traded from the Seattle Kraken to the New York Rangers in exchange for second and fourth round picks. However, he earned much more than Evans.

Examples of transactions completed on the deadline

We searched the latest trade deadlines to find trades involving forwards considered “useful”, therefore not necessarily hockey players who could fill a role on one of the first two lines of an aspiring team, on a regular basis , and who became free agents without compensation. Here’s what we found. These transactions took place on the deadline or a few days before.

• 16 mars 2022: Calle Järnkrok moves from the Kraken to the Flames in exchange for second, third and seventh round picks.
• 21 mars 2022: Andrew Copp moves from the Winnipeg Jets to the New York Rangers with a sixth-round pick in return for conditional first- and second-round picks as well as a fifth-round selection.
• 21 mars 2022: The Canadian sends Artturi Lehkonen to Colorado in exchange for Justin Barron and a second-round pick.
• February 25, 2023: Nino Niederreiter goes from the Predators to the Jets for a second-round pick.
• 1^is mars 2023: Lars Eller is traded to Colorado by the Washington Capitals, who receive a second-round pick in addition to retaining 31% of Eller’s salary.
• 1^is mars 2023: The Nashville Predators trade Mikael Granlund to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a second-round pick.
• 5 mars 2024: Anthony Mantha moves to the Vegas Golden Knights for a second-round pick in 2024 and a fourth-round pick in 2026. The Washington Capitals also retain 50% of Mantha’s salary.
• 6 mars 2024: Alex Wennberg moves to the New York Rangers and they send second and fourth round picks to the Seattle Kraken, who keep 50% of Wennberg’s salary.