With its slogan “ Drill, baby, drill », which he once again used during his inauguration speech on Monday, US President Donald Trump wants to reopen the oil and gas floodgates in the United States. A promise that is already raising fears of political, economic and environmental impacts.
Posted at 4:54 p.m.
First, what does this slogan imply?
In French, we can translate “drill, baby, drill » with “drill, darling, drill”. This is a slogan first used in 2008 by Republican Michael Steele, which Mr. Trump used to illustrate his desire to double energy production in the United States during his next term.
“It is an expression which, in a few words, illustrates that the president-elect will do oil exploration everywhere, even in protected areas, to achieve the energy independence that he advocates,” explains Valérie Beaudoin, associate researcher. at the United States Observatory of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies.
In a way, she adds, “Donald Trump wants to send the message to stop demonizing oil, gasoline and gas, then to free himself from Canada and the countries of the Middle East.”
What would be the environmental consequences of such a decision?
They are likely to be numerous, especially since Mr. Trump announced Washington’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement.
At the National Institute of Scientific Research, associate professor Louise Hénault-Ethier, specialized in adaptation to climate change, believes that the president is “weakening his country and the international scene”.
“That means more GHG (greenhouse gas emissions), fires and floods in the long term. In Alaska, where he wants to significantly increase oil production, there is an already very fragile Arctic ecosystem where we are going to encourage a vicious circle which will threaten many species,” notes the specialist.
As hydrocarbons consume enormous quantities of water, “water contamination is regularly observed in places where drilling has been carried out”. “Studies show it: this means an increased risk of cancer for children living in these regions. »
What would be the impact on gas prices?
Several scenarios are possible, since everything will depend on real decisions on the ground, says economist Michel Poitevin, of the University of Montreal.
-“If Donald Trump wants, as he claims, to fill American reserves, but does not necessarily drill more, there will certainly be upward pressure on prices, because we would remove oil from our market “, he emphasizes.
That said, more drilling could lower energy prices if the United States sells off the outlets, he adds.
“In all cases, it will be necessary above all to see and evaluate the cost of the new wells, if there are any, to know if they will be truly competitive. Saudi Arabia costs a lot less to date, so there is an economic reality that will probably hit,” persists Mr. Poitevin.
How quickly could this materialize?
It won’t happen immediately since it involves a lot of steps, answer most observers.
“It is not tomorrow that the American government will be able to exploit the oil it wants to drill. From the outset, we can think that there will be challenges before the courts, then also, as the United States is a very decentralized country, there will surely be a lifting of barricades in more democratic sectors. Not everyone is going to let the president exploit as he wants,” says Valérie Beaudoin.
The political scientist nevertheless expects that Mr. Trump will use the national security argument a lot to convince certain governors to proceed. “All this will take some time to put in place,” she notes.
Would Canada thus lose negotiating power?
Yes and no. For now, “drill, baby, drill is more of a slogan than a real business plan,” underlines Mme Hénault-Ethier.
“We must understand that drilling to find oil is a technique that we see less and less all over the world, because conventional reserves of liquid oil are becoming empty. We are going more through hydraulic fracturing and tar sands, two more complex and expensive technologies,” she reasons.
Michel Poitevin second. “We might think that it would take away some weight from us in Canada, but for me, in the immediate future, it mainly delays the transition from an economic and environmental point of view,” he says.
