Xavier Bettel: “Donald Trump is a “game changer””

Since the announcement of the ceasefire in Gaza mid-last week, we have heard a lot that American influence, and in particular that of Donald Trump, was essential in this agreement. Could Donald Trump’s return to the White House ultimately have some good sides?

I admit that I do not know exactly who negotiated what with whom and how… I have had a lot of discussions in recent hours (this interview was carried out this Thursday afternoon, Editor’s note) with my Egyptian and Qatari counterparts, as well as ‘with the Israeli president and foreign minister, but not with Joe Biden and Donald Trump. I therefore do not wish to assign “good or bad points” to one or the other. I can only thank those who know that they were necessary to obtain this agreement. The main thing is that the latter is concretely there and that it can allow the civilian population of Gaza to stop suffering.

Afterwards, it’s true that Donald Trump is what we call a “game changer”. I worked with him for four years when he was already president and I was prime minister. With him, we know that there is a risk of being a lot of uncertainty, also unpredictability and “transactional”. He’s a businessman. He’s not giving you a gift. He has his own character, is spontaneous and direct. But, with his way of working, he will perhaps be able to unblock certain situations that remained unblocked until then…

The announcement effect of this ceasefire is important. But with the instability we are experiencing in this region of the world, can it last long?

I think that if we question the lifespan of such an agreement or the desire to want peace, we are approaching the problem from the wrong end. What is needed today is to achieve a two-state situation as quickly as possible. So that Palestinian peace is Israeli security. Palestine must be able to live and have functioning institutions.

Coming back to Donald Trump, his return to business raises fears of American disengagement in Europe. Mainly on defense. A justified fear in your opinion?

The first thing to say is that Europe should above all be able to count on itself. Of course, it is important to have partners, but we cannot be dependent on others. When Donald Trump says “America first”, he does not mean “America alone”. We need a more independent European Union. The political relations of one or the other cannot shake our economic, security relations, etc. We must reindustrialize, develop. “Europe first!”, I would like to say to you.

As for Donald Trump, what he wants is to see more military spending from other nations. When I was Prime Minister, Luxembourg’s defense effort increased from 0.39% of GDP (gross domestic product) in 2013 to 0.74% in 2024. With the objective of reaching 2% of GNI (the gross national income, a lower threshold to reach, Editor’s note) by 2030. This was not an easy choice to make. We were pushed into it by Russia. You know, I am someone who considers that cooperation policy is always the best investment for the protection of defense. Because if we give young people perspectives, we strongly avoid seeing them fall into extremism. But Russia’s aggression in Ukraine showed us that we could also have “neighboring” countries that we could not trust. It changed my vision a little. I understand today that military spending is, unfortunately, very useful. And that’s something I never could have imagined having to think…

Do you share the fear of certain Scandinavian leaders regarding the risk of war in Europe?

We must do everything to avoid it! Afterwards, I tell myself that if Vladimir Putin had wanted to attack Europe, he would have already done so. Why would he wait? Today, he appears more in a position of weakness. This is why we must not push the Chinese into our arms, as I have already explained. Those who think that China should be associated with North Korea or Iran in the context of the war in Ukraine are wrong. It is one of the few countries that can facilitate lasting peace. It’s not me who says this, but Antony Blinken, the American Secretary of State. According to him, the Chinese helped avoid the use of the atomic bomb in this conflict. We will probably never know if this is completely true or not. But let’s avoid the Chinese becoming allies of the Russians.

Should we raise awareness among the Luxembourg population in view of a possible war, as certain countries – including Sweden and Finland – have already done?

The countries you are talking about are direct neighbors of Russia and could perhaps witness certain excesses. I don’t know if Sweden and Finland are really in the sights… There is still the NATO shield in place and a certain policy of deterrence.

However, peace has not been achieved, contrary to what has been thought since the end of the Second World War. We have seen in Ukraine that aggression is always possible. Russia appears to be highly unpredictable. From there to saying that war will be upon us tomorrow, there is a step that I will not take. I don’t want to fall into neurosis or catastrophism. Living with a knot in my stomach or in fear is not what I want. So let’s do everything to avoid it.

Donald Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine once he is in office. Do you believe it?

If I remember correctly, he explained that he could resolve the problem in 48 hours (in 24 hours in reality, Editor’s note). We will therefore see Thursday morning, since his inauguration is scheduled for this Monday.

What has happened in the Middle East in recent days tends to give him some credit…

As I told you, we’ll see Thursday morning.

Do you believe it?

I think something might happen. If this is the case, the whole question will then be to see whether the agreement reached will be in Ukraine’s interests. If it is to impose certain things on the Ukrainians and, therefore, humiliate them, I do not know if this will be acceptable in the eyes of the international community. Ukraine must be in a position of strength. The loss of Crimea would be one thing. But there is also the Lugansk and Donetsk area. A region where no Ukrainians live anymore, but which still belongs to Ukraine. Should it be made a buffer or neutral zone? If so, with the presence in the region of countries that guarantee peace?

And then there is the last question, that of impunity and reparation. It is crucial. Are the Ukrainians ready to give the Russians impunity? Are they ready to say that the Russians do not need to pay after having set their country ablaze? These are points to which we must be attentive.

Would it be possible not to accept a possible agreement?

Of course. We cannot finalize an agreement on Ukraine without Ukraine. I think Donald Trump is aware of this. Just like an agreement made at the expense of the Ukrainians would be very hard to accept. Russia cannot emerge victorious from a deal with Donald Trump. We must never forget who attacked who in this conflict.