However, if the Ukrainian occupation of Russian territory has diminished, it remains a strategic element in the context of future negotiations with Russia. “We could force the Russians to withdraw from part of occupied Ukraine, in order to return Kursk in exchange“, according to the professor.
Some analysts are very optimistic about the effects of this offensive, such as showing Russia’s vulnerability and discrediting Vladimir Putin. But for Tom Simoens, the positive effects of this counterattack remain limited. “We also need to see what is happening in Donbass. Ukraine is gradually and systematically ceding ground to the Russians, and more and more ground. They lack armed forces, soldiers, infantrymen, ordinary soldiers with a rifle. I always ask myself the question, if the operations in Kursk justify this significant price that the Ukrainians are forced to pay in Donbass, where they cede their own territory in order to defend the Russian territory that they occupy and which they have conquered. I remain quite critical of this operation in Kursk, even if I see positive effects. But some positive effects have completely disappeared, the boost to Ukrainian morale for example.
Structural problems within the Ukrainian command
General Oleksandr Syrsky, appointed commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces last February, has faced numerous criticisms of his management of the troops. But according to Tom Simoens, there are many problems that concern “the style of command in general“. “I don’t know if Syrsky is the worst or the least worst officer. But Ukrainian officers are still too much in the Soviet mentality. The Ukrainian army still has a bit of this culture of corruption, of fraud, where we do not dare to admit reality in reports. We don’t dare admit that we have lost a position, so we give unrealistic orders“, he adds. “It is difficult to assess the exact role Syrsky plays in the current fighting. Ukrainians are defending themselves everywhere. We can’t say that they are doing it badly, they manage the defensive fight relatively well. This is also the role of the commander in chief, there has been no collapse or implosion of the Ukrainian fund.”
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“But Syrsky failed to solve the fundamental problems of the Ukrainian army, that is, corruption and leadership,” specifies Tom Simoens, who points out numerous endemic problems in the Ukrainian command. “You could say it’s a failure, he’s not doing his job well enough. But we must admit that the problems facing Ukrainians are gigantic. You can’t change the culture of an organization of a million people in two weeks.
-Addressing the shortage of soldiers
A few days ago, we learned that nearly 1,700 men from the “Anne de kyiv” brigade, training in France, had deserted. “This is truly emblematic of all the problems of the Ukrainian army“, reacts Tom Simoens. “Ukraine is struggling to find infantrymen, soldiers who want to get into the trenches and do the hardest job of this war. Desertion is a universal and timeless problem of all wars. And I don’t have the impression that it has become an unmanageable problem at the Ukrainian level. The problem with this “Anne of kyiv” brigade is that it was cut into different parts. We sent a battalion to the left and one to the right, so it never functioned as a brigade. They should do the opposite and create a division level of army above the brigades, so that they can launch larger operations.”
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But the Ukrainian army also suffers from a recruitment problem. “It’s not motivating to become an infantryman in the Ukrainian army. Everyone knows that there is a lack of resources, that there is a lack of infantry, so this is not a gift. It’s a vicious cycle that is very difficult to break because the situation gets worse. In my opinion, this can be reversed with significant Western aid and a training program that gives the Ukrainians some hope.“
A weariness that extends to the entire Ukrainian society, because 60% of Ukrainians would like to start negotiations and are considering abandoning certain territories. “People are fed up. And that’s exactly what Putin wants“, concludes Tom Simoens.
