Governments are not responsible for everything. But in nine years at the head of a country, a prime minister can change many things. Here’s how Canada has transformed under Justin Trudeau since he became prime minister in 2015. Often for the better… but not always, experts tell us.
Published yesterday at 7:30 p.m.
Many immigrants
Between 2016 and 2024, Ottawa increased the thresholds from 300,000 to 485,000 permanent immigrants per year. Ottawa recognized its error last fall and will reduce the target to 360,000 in 2027. This debate on federal thresholds has little or no effect in Quebec, which in practice decides alone on its permanent immigration thresholds. .
In 2016, Canada welcomed 385,000 immigrants (296,000 permanent, 89,000 temporary), which represented 0.6% of the country’s population.
In 2024, there will be 1.2 million immigrants (464,000 permanent immigrants, 775,000 temporary immigrants including asylum seekers), or the equivalent of 3.3% of the population. A large part of this increase is attributable to temporary workers.
This increase in immigration “has created all kinds of problems. Before, Canada had one of the best immigration systems in the world,” says economist Pierre Fortin, professor emeritus at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).
The consequences will be felt for years, including on the cost of living. The feds injected volatility into something [les seuils d’immigration] stable and which was seen as a success.
Jimmy Jean, chief economist of Mouvement Desjardins
A government (a little) more in debt
The gross debt of the Government of Canada increased by approximately a third (35%) during the Trudeau years. When the Liberals took power in 2015, the federal government’s gross debt was equivalent to 31.1% of gross domestic product (GDP). Today it is equivalent to 41.9% of GDP.
Canada’s debt level is very reasonable. Among the G7 countries, Germany and Canada are the two least indebted countries (including all levels of government). In terms of net debt, Canada is by far the least indebted G7 country (Canada’s net debt: 13% of GDP; G7 average: 94% of GDP).
A bigger state
Including all levels of government, the size of the state in the economy in Canada (the rate of tax burden) increased from 31.9% to 34.0% of GDP between 2015 and 2022. This is an increase of 2.1 points in GDP, compared to an average increase of 1.8 points in GDP in the countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) during this period.
Canada nevertheless has a smaller state than the average of OECD countries, where the tax burden reaches 36.1% of GDP on average1.
Important downside: the size of the State also depends on the quantity of public services. Countries with larger governments like France, Norway and Finland provide more public services and redistribute more wealth than countries with lighter taxes like the United States.
The size of the State is very much a societal choice.
Less poverty
The Trudeau government’s family allowances, more generous than the Harper government’s benefits for less well-off parents, have lifted many families out of poverty. These allowances are “the most beautiful thing” put in place by the Trudeau government, according to economist Pierre Fortin. Between 2015 and 2022, the poverty rate decreased from 14.5% to 9.9%, according to Statistics Canada.
A “mixed record” in economics
There is a tendency to overestimate the impact of governments on the economy. When things are bad and when things are going well.
The influence of prime ministers on the economy is limited compared to other more fundamental factors such as demographics, the pandemic, the evolution of technology and geopolitical conflicts.
Pierre Emmanuel Paradis, economist and president of the firm AppEco
That said, how did the economy perform during the Trudeau years? “It’s not a catastrophe, but it’s a mixed result,” said Jimmy Jean, chief economist of Desjardins Group.
The unemployment rate remained historically low during his mandate. It is now 6.8%, compared to 7.1% in November 2015.
One of the best indicators for measuring both the strength of an economy and the standard of living of its citizens: GDP per capita. In this regard, Canada did less well than all the other G7 countries during the years of Justin Trudeau. In 2023, its GDP per capita decreased, among other things because Canada welcomed around 1 million immigrants.
From 2015 to 2023, the real standard of living of Canadians (real GDP per capita) grew by 2.0%, compared to an average of 8.5% in other G7 countries.
As for inflation, in the worst year in 2022, Canada had the third lowest inflation among G7 countries. “Inflation has been a global phenomenon, Justin Trudeau has nothing to do with it,” says economist Pierre Fortin.
Always have an excellent credit score
Justin Trudeau inherited a government with an excellent credit rating from the major rating agencies, and he will leave his successor… an excellent credit rating! Among G7 countries, Canada has the second highest rating, behind Germany. Two of the three agencies give it the best possible rating, the AAA rating.
A more equal country
Economic inequality has decreased in Canada under Justin Trudeau. They are also lower in Canada than in the average of OECD countries1. Two decisions by the Trudeau government taken in 2015 which undoubtedly contributed to reducing economic inequalities: reducing taxes on the middle class and increasing those on better-off taxpayers.
Housing costs more
It is not Justin Trudeau who determines the price of housing in Canada, and several countries have an affordability problem. But the cost of housing still increased during the Trudeau years.
The average rent in the country increased from $907 in 2015 to $1,402 in 2024. This is an increase of 55% in nine years, or approximately 6% per year.
The biggest problem: many young people cannot afford to buy property because prices have increased much faster than wages.
In 2023, a new buyer who acquired a property in Montreal2 had to spend 36% of their median income on their mortgage payment, according to data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). In 2019, it was 25%. The increase is even worse in English Canada, calculates CMHC.
Less greenhouse gases
CO emissions2 in Canada decreased by 6.5% between 2015 and 2023, from 742 to 694 megatonnes of CO2 per year. During its mandate, the Trudeau government imposed a national price on pollution (the carbon tax).
1. Read “Tax Report in Quebec – 2024 Edition”
2. At the median price of properties in the Montreal region.
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