Irnie of history, Poland took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU), Wednesday 1is January, for six months, in a context that is both tragic and propitious. The Russian war which is devastating Ukraine, at the gates of this country so often trampled and torn apart by rival powers, has become a primordial subject for Europe. Long before the Western European member states, which remained deaf to its warnings, Warsaw had perceived the threat. Poland today plays a crucial role in the logistics of aid to Ukraine and is working on its own to fortify its eastern border, Europe’s bulwark against danger from the east.
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In the rotating presidency, Poland succeeds Hungary, whose performance did not dazzle in Brussels, with which it is currently at odds and which, in effect, accentuates the good student side of Europe of the team today now in power in Warsaw. The Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, combines the advantages of having been President of the European Council, from 2014 to 2019, and of belonging to the most important political current both in the European Parliament and within the college of commissioners, that of Christian Democrats of the European People’s Party (EPP), from which the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also comes.
Third asset, Mr. Tusk appointed as European commissioner his former right-hand man Piotr Serafin, for whom he negotiated the very strategic budget portfolio. A political savvy, perfectly versed in community mysteries, Mr. Serafin will know how to bring Polish influence to bear in Brussels.
The period fits like a glove for Poland, which is reaping the fruits of its economic dynamism and investing record sums in its defense budget, an effort that other European countries will be called upon to make with the coming to power in Washington by Donald Trump. He had already obtained during his first mandate that the European states of NATO increase their military spending; he makes no secret of his desire to reiterate this demand in his second mandate, at a time when the return of war to the continent requires Europeans to contribute more to their security.
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Donald Tusk, however, has other challenges to face with the EU: the enlargement process, in particular to Ukraine and Moldova, under more complex conditions than those enjoyed by Poland two decades ago; the ecological transition, of which the country, still dependent on coal and concerned about its rural electorate, is far from being at the forefront; immigration, a subject on which Warsaw maintains a hard line, especially since Belarus exploits a network of illegal migrants on the Polish border. Added to this is a domestic political challenge, that of the Polish presidential election in May, which Mr. Tusk’s coalition absolutely wants to win to put an end to a paralyzing cohabitation with the national-conservative opposition party.
Another irony of history is that Poland takes this presidency at a particular moment when France and Germany, the two main engines of European construction, partners of Warsaw in the Weimar triangle, are weakened by their internal difficulties . Mr. Tusk is well placed to know that he will not be able to work usefully without them. But this unprecedented situation also offers Poland a historic opportunity to show its maturity.
