The fall of Bashar al-Assad will allow the American army to intensify its strikes against the Islamic State in areas previously protected by Syrian and Russian anti-aircraft defenses, but the jihadists will take advantage of the vacuum left by the troops. Syrians to maneuver more freely.
The US military, which regularly carries out airstrikes, announced it had killed 12 IS members on Monday during operations “to prevent the terrorist group from carrying out external actions and to ensure that IS does not seek not take advantage of the situation to reconstitute itself in central Syria”, according to the US Middle East Military Command (Centcom).
These strikes took place in areas formerly controlled by the power of Bashar al-Assad, overthrown on December 8 by a coalition of rebel groups led by radical Islamists after 13 years of civil war.
Washington claims to have intensified strikes since the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
On December 8, the day Syrian rebels captured the capital Damascus, Washington announced strikes on more than 75 IS targets.
“Previously, the air defenses of the Syrian regime and Russia (allied to Bashar al-Assad) prevented us, in many cases” from striking in these areas, Pentagon spokesperson General Pat Ryder told reporters. journalists this week.
Today, “the environment is much more ‘permissive’ in this regard,” he said.
But this “permissive environment” can also be taken advantage of by ISIS.
“Terrorist groups like ISIS like power vacuums and so there is a risk that ISIS could exploit the chaos of a post-Assad Syria to resurface in an even bigger way,” said political scientist Raphael Cohen. at the RAND Corporation.
Washington’s Kurdish allies, who have already been targeted by Turkey, also risk having to focus on fighting their northern neighbor rather than ISIS.
“It’s a particularly acute risk because they have ISIS detainees and if they release them, that would obviously have negative effects on the fight against ISIS,” Cohen added.
Washington has around 900 troops in eastern Syria and 2,500 in Iraq as part of the international coalition set up in 2014 to fight IS in the two countries. But the coming to power of Donald Trump at the end of January could shake things up.
“During his first term, Trump indicated that he wanted to withdraw American forces from Syria. I can easily imagine that during his second term, he would make another effort in this direction. Especially since Assad does not is no longer there,” underlines Mr. Cohen.
Mr. Trump could also reduce American military commitments in the Middle East to rely on regional allies, Mr. Cohen warns, noting that “if that happened, the United States’ counterterrorism strategy would be very different.”
