Rebel groups led by the radical Islamists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham continue the military escalation in northern Syria, after conquering Aleppo, the country’s second city which escapes the total control of the regime for the first time since 2011.
In a country divided by war, what prospects are on the horizon for northern Syria and its belligerents?
Who launched the offensive?
It was launched on November 27 by a coalition of rebel groups dominated by the former Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS).
“The regime forces withdrew from their positions (…) without offering significant resistance,” estimated the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH). Same observation according to witnesses interviewed by AFP.
For Jérôme Drevon, expert from the International Crisis Group (ICG), the offensive initially aimed to “test (…) the regime’s lines of defense”.
The meteoric advance of the insurgents allowed them to realize that “the regime was weaker than they thought,” he adds.
The capture of Aleppo also shows “that Iran and Russia either could not, or did not want to, really protect the regime on an essential point which is the economic capital”, he believes.
The loss of the metropolis constitutes a setback all the more bitter since the regime, supported by Tehran and Moscow, had spared no effort to retake its eastern districts held by the rebellion in 2016, at the cost of a long siege and bloody battles.
In parallel with the HTS offensive, rebels supported by Ankara launched a new operation on Saturday, which notably allowed them to take the enclave of Tal Rifaat (north), previously in the hands of the Kurds, Turkey’s bete noire .
The fighting has pushed tens of thousands of Kurds from Tal Rifaat to flee to minority-held territories further east.
The countries involved
On Saturday, President Bashar al-Assad vowed to “defeat” “terrorists” with “the help of his allies.”
But what if things had changed? Moscow is absorbed by the war in Ukraine and Tehran by an explosive regional situation which has weakened its allies, first and foremost Hezbollah in Lebanon, after two months of war with Israel.
The rebels have chosen the “ideal” moment to launch their offensive, believes Hans-Jakob Schindler, of the Counter-Extremism Project (CEP) think tank, as Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah “have other problems to resolve Right now “.
Tehran and Moscow, however, promised their Syrian ally “unconditional support”. According to the Kremlin, they “underlined the importance of coordinating” their action with Turkey, which supports rebels and controls border territories in northern Syria.
Not very present in the first days, the Russian air force announced on Sunday that it was supporting the Syrian army “to repel terrorist aggression” in northern Syria.
Iran confirmed that it was maintaining its “military advisors” alongside the army.
For its part, Turkey, which according to some experts gave the green light to the offensive on Aleppo, estimated through its Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan that Damascus must “reach a compromise with its own people and the legitimate opposition.
What prospects?
“Aleppo seems lost for the regime. Unless we launch a counter-offensive soon, or if Russia and Iran send more reinforcements, I don’t think the government can get it back,” said Aron Lund of the Century International think tank.
However, “a government without Aleppo is not really a functional government in Syria,” he summarizes.
The president “Assad probably does not have the resources necessary to retake Aleppo,” confirms Tammy Palacios, of the New Lines institute.
And even if this were done, with the support of Russian and Iranian allies, the surrounding localities could not be reconquered, she adds.
The ongoing escalation breaks the precarious calm in northern Syria, which has reigned since 2020 thanks to a ceasefire negotiated by Moscow and Ankara.
But if the guns had fallen silent, no lasting political resolution to the conflict was in sight.
For political scientist Fabrice Balanche, it is difficult to expect a “reunification” of Syria.
“The regime can maintain itself in the Alawite coastal region, in particular thanks to the Russian presence, in Homs and Damascus” in the center, he explains.
The northwest will remain “under the supervision of HTS and pro-Turks”, and the northeast dominated by Kurdish forces “provided that the American presence lasts” to prevent a Turkish offensive, he said.
From now on, a government recognized by the UN could coexist alongside “autonomous entities (…) based on a strong ethnic-confessional identity”, he predicts. “The existing fragmentation will settle in over time.”
