Africa: Paris stumbles again in its military “reorganization”

By announcing, within a few hours of each other, the departure of French soldiers from their soil, Senegal and Chad formalized a “reorganization” that Paris had been preparing for a long time. But the form is catastrophic and, once again, benefits Russian influence. Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye declared that his country’s “sovereignty” did not “accommodate the presence of military bases”, calling for a “stripped partnership” of French soldiers.

Shortly after, when Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot had just left N’Djamena, his Chadian counterpart Abderaman Koulamallah announced “terminating the defense cooperation agreement” signed with Paris. A decision that took Paris by surprise. It was only Friday evening that France declared that it “took note” of the Chadian decision.

After the forced departure in recent years of French soldiers from Mali, Burkina Faso and then Niger, where hostile juntas were established, Chad was the last Sahelian country to still host them. These two declarations come as Jean-Marie Bockel submitted his report on Monday on the reconfiguration of the French military system in Africa, advocating a “renewed” and “co-constructed” partnership.

The report “recommended a drastic reduction in presence. This is not necessarily what was initially requested by the partners. But the decisions were moving in this direction, they preferred to announce that the decision was theirs,” comments Elie Tenenbaum, of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).

The Chadian authorities are not satisfied “because the recommendations do not take their expectations into account”, judges Yamingué Bétinbaye, doctor in political geography at the University of N’Djamena.

“Once again, the Africans have advanced faster than the French,” adds Elie Tenenbaum. In doing so, they offer Russia, in the midst of its surge in influence on the continent, a nice gift. “Both Chad and Senegal have strengthened trade with Moscow in recent months.”

An analysis reminiscent of statements last week by Chadian opponent Succès Masra. “There are many openly pro-Russian people in the presidency. Wagner is already there,” he assured. Chadian leaders “can free the French at any time, but everyone pretends that it doesn’t exist.

For Wolfram Lacher, of the German SWP think tank, “it’s a page that is turning” for the former colonial power. “It’s a surprise (…), there was no need for Déby to take this step. He had a comfortable position with Paris. And from now on, he “will need other external support to ensure the security of his regime”, even if he could “avoid a relationship of dependence with Moscow” by diversifying his support.

The sequence refers to France’s inability to break the impasse and the opprobrium of African opinions, even since the end of the anti-jihadist operation Barkhane in the Sahel was announced in 2022 by Paris.

In January, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Thierry Burkhard admitted that the French “military system” produced “particularly in the field of perceptions of negative effects which end up weighing more heavily than the positive effects”. “It can be described as a slap in the face,” says Wolfram Lacher.