The Congolese people had to be content with a speech by the head of state at the end of the day. A speech in which Félix Tshisekedi, who began his last term in January, could only note the defeats recorded in the east of the country and announced that he had “instructs the new government to invest as a priority in strengthening the State’s capacity to secure the territory and the population with a cumulative budget over five years, representing 20% of the annual budget.”
Words that failed to reassure or make us forget the images coming from North Kivu where the rebels of the Congo River Alliance-M23, led by the former president of the CENI Corneille Nangaa, managed, on June 29, to take the city of Kanyabayonga, presented for months as a lock on the Great North.
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The MONUSCO peacekeepers and the Congolese army had again affirmed last week, with numerous videos to support their claim, that they were increasing joint patrols to guarantee the security of the civilian population and repel the advance of the rebels in this locality which finally fell on Saturday June 29.
“A lock has jumped”
In the ranks of the AFC-M23 executives, contacted by La Libre, the fall of Kanyabayonga is presented as a “important victory which opens access to the Great North”. On Sunday, June 30, the rebels continued their rapid advance towards the north of the province of North Kivu before slowing down and seeking to “consolidate the sockets”.
For Bob Kabamba, political scientist, professor at the University of Liège and specialist in the DRC, “Kanyabayonga seems to be the obstacle that prevented progress towards the Far North. We are talking about the province of Ituri as well as the former Orientale Province, with, obviously, the city of Kisangani in the line of sight.. This advance by the rebels could be a tipping point in the conflict.”
An army criticized
In Kanyabayonga and the surrounding area, videos taken on the fly show a Congolese army vilified by the civilian population.We also see fewer columns of displaced people fleeing the advance of the rebels. In some places, the men led by Corneille Nangaa even seem to be rather well received by the population. This is a considerable development,” notes the academic.
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With this breakthrough, the men of the Congo River Alliance-M23 are also getting closer to the Nande country. A people of traders not accustomed to war.If we go back a few years, to the time of rebel movements like the RCD or the AFDL of Laurent-Désiré Kabila, we will see that this Nande region has always preferred the deal to the fight. It is the Nande who economically run the region in many areas that go from the food trade to fuel, including airlines, financial means… And they do not limit themselves to North Kivu, they overflow widely into Ituri, the former Orientale Province and, obviously, Uganda”continues Bob Kabamba. For our interlocutor, if the rebels continue to advance in a sustained manner, there is a good chance that history could repeat itself and that Nangaa’s troops could progress rapidly throughout this zone of influence.
The weight of Uganda
A step forward that cannot be envisaged without the support of the Ugandans who have just been singled out, like Rwanda, in the latest report by United Nations experts for their support for the rebels opposed to the Kinshasa regime.
“We must not forget either that this progression allows Corneille Nangaa to get closer to his personal base”continues Professor Kabamba, who insists on the fact that this region “is often neglected by Kinshasa both economically and politically or in terms of development. If Nangaa arrives in this region, he should be able to unite many supporters for his cause. This is why I speak of a tipping point.”
Contagion
Progress. Tipping point. The movement, which began more than two years ago in Bunagana, on the border between Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, seems to be taking on new momentum that could also trigger protest movements in other parts of the country that are increasingly critical of the regime in Kinshasa, such as in Haut-Katanga or South Kivu.There were protests against Tshisekedi’s power in Lubumbashi”continues Mr. Kabamba who also points out “the security vacuum in South Kivu following the withdrawal of blue helmets”A new situation that could suit local militias who, in the short or medium term, could be tempted to join the AFC-M23 against a President Tshisekedi who appears increasingly cut off from the daily reality of his people.
