According to Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, researcher at the French Institute of Geopolitics (attached to the University of Paris VIII), we should not give up on the project of Ukraine joining NATO, because it constitutes “a regulatory idea for the future of a free, secure and sovereign Ukraine“. Interview.
What if Donald Trump stops helping Ukraine? “This scenario is possible, but it is not inevitable”
In your opinion, how likely is Ukraine to join NATO?
The probability is low due to opposition from the United States and Germany. However, such a decision is made by consensus within NATO. Furthermore, the fighting must stop and there must first be an agreement on the ceasefire, then a security agreement. As things stand, entry into NATO is a commitment made, certainly, but sine the.
gullA frozen conflict is a suspended war, and a suspended war is a postponed war.
What alternatives could NATO propose to kyiv in the event of refusal or postponement of this membership?
Within the framework of NATO, there already exists a high-level partnership and a NATO-Ukraine Council. While awaiting a hypothetical accession of Ukraine, bilateral security agreements have been signed but the security guarantees fall short of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A coalition of goodwill, led by Paris and London, is also envisaged and discussed. This would be as part of a global agreement that would freeze the situation in the theater of operations, where European troops would be deployed to ensure the security of Ukrainian territory. In short, the scenario of a frozen confit. Let us remember, however, that a frozen conflict is a suspended war, and a suspended war is a postponed war.
“Donald Trump is the only American president who has not officially committed to the principle of mutual defense”
Is the Kremlin using this theme in its political strategy?
As things stand, Vladimir Putin is waging an all-out war against Ukraine, with the European Union and NATO in his sights. The Kremlin wants to take as much territory as possible from Ukraine, destroy what it cannot conquer, reduce free Ukraine to a stump state, without allies, potentially deprived of access to the Black Sea, a sort of of geopolitical non-being. But beyond that, the ambitions are even greater, on the scale of post-Soviet Eurasia, Europe, even the “post-Western world”.
So let’s not think that a ceasefire and a deployment of European troops outside NATO could lure Vladimir Putin. It would just be a tactical break for him. A non-NATO solution would have the advantage for Moscow of weakening the geopolitical solidarity of European allies with the United States, and of threatening the future of the Atlantic Alliance. Also such a deployment, even without American troops, should be supported by NATO and the United States.
