Some iconoclastic appointments decided by Trump has fun in Europe. And we are delighted to observe his first setbacks. The fact remains that while we are getting poorer, Americans are getting richer. And if the spectacular nature of this new administration may make some pretentious people smile, make no mistake: it will be effective.
Donald Trump won everything. He will be able to almost entirely shape an administration by his own hand. The first appointments of his “government” also give pride of place to the faithful who supported him after January 6, 2021; personalities like Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo or Nikki Haley not appearing among the first elected. These three will have paid for their “betrayal” in the eyes of Donald Trump who is now the sole master on board. The former New York promoter didn't just win the race for the White House. He has seized absolutely all the instruments of power of the American state.
For starters, his daughter-in-law Lara is the current co-chair of the Republican National Committee. Trump therefore leads the party unchallenged. Then, the Republicans now have a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives, not to mention that they have more judges favorable to their ideas on the Supreme Court. An American president has rarely had such a deal, granting him extremely important freedom of maneuver in the country of “presidentialism”. The main choices that emerge for the moment are deregulation, protectionism, isolationism and the fight against the excesses of “progressivism”.
A rather libertarian orientation
Donald Trump's mandate will surely be marked by a “libertarian” orientation comparable to what Argentina is experiencing with Javier Milei. The Argentine president also went to the United States where he could be seen posing withElon Musk et Vivek Ramaswamy. The founder of Space its market capitalization soared to almost reach its all-time high in the days following the election of Donald Trump.
A fierce supporter of freedom and “less is more” in administrative matters, Elon Musk has made numerous shocking declarations on the state of American finances and announced that he was going to audit all public administrations, starting with the Pentagon. It provides for a significant downsizing of civil servants deemed unnecessary and to cut all excess spending. He also intends to repeal numerous regulations in areas as varied as health, education and tax policy. Enough to surely create a competitiveness shock for the American economy and industry.
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An ultra-regulatory continent, Europe will therefore face companies which will not only have enormous capital but also extraordinary freedoms and much more attractive taxation. This could cause a lot of hassle for our businesses, especially when at the same time the Barnier government's budget plans to increase taxes directly targeting the most efficient sectors of our economy, namely aeronautics and luxury! Perhaps we could find a happy medium between the aspirations of Elon Musk and the very French tax path that chains us? The DOGE will attack the federal bureaucracy in an extremely aggressive manner while we continue to strengthen it in France and in Europe, contrary to what is recommended, for example, by the Draghi report.
Both men are tech-savvy and progressive. They also confirm Donald Trump's conversion to cryptocurrencies which could lead to the creation of a federal bitcoin reserve. The queen of cryptocurrencies, which alone accounts for 50% of digital currency transactions, could therefore see its value explode further as it today approaches the symbolic line of 100K dollars which it should exceed very soon.
Former Democrats recycled
Among the controversial appointments, those of dissident Democrats Robert Kennedy Jr. et Tulsi Gabbard feature prominently. A former Democrat like Elon Musk, Donald Trump seems to have wanted to practice openness by appointing Ms. Gabbard to head of national intelligence and Kennedy to Health. The two personalities nevertheless raise important questions. Seen as favorable to the Kremlin, Tulsi Gabbard is also accused of not having the necessary experience for the position. As for Kennedy, he is accused of being a follower of pseudo-science and conspiracy theories. Let us nevertheless recognize one quality in him: he fights against junk food and asks American food manufacturers to comply with European standards. This could potentially represent an opportunity for our agriculture.
Moderate isolationism?
We know that multilateralism is not Donald Trump's cup of tea, nor that of JD Vance. The doctrine of America First will be brought up to date. Highly appreciated by Israel, Donald Trump appointed Marco Rubio to Foreign Affairs, whose sympathies for the Jewish state are well known. If there is one point of consensus for the future Trump administration, it will be support for Israel. Donald Trump's policy between 2016 and 2020 was marked by the transfer of the American embassy to Jerusalem, a symbolic gesture which greatly pleased the Israeli right.
Donald Trump will also rely on Saudi Arabia, with which he has old and privileged ties, to continue to isolate Iran. The Abraham Accords will probably be relaunched and sanctions targeting Iran strengthened. Will Trump nevertheless be able to achieve peace in “one day” in Gaza and Lebanon? He promised it but there is room for doubt. We will also note an inconsistency within Trumpism. The personalities he designated, like Mike Waltz to National Security or John Ratcliffe at the CIA, are eager to put pressure on “rogue” states like Iran and North Korea. They also want to fight more openly against China both strategically and economically with the introduction of customs tariffs. However, they seem relatively unconcerned by Russia.
There is a blind spot there, Moscow being the central pillar of this axis. The arrival of North Korean soldiers on the Ukrainian battlefields will have further confirmed this. Could it be that the Trump administration thinks it can negotiate over Iran with the tacit approval of Russia? It would be a mistake to believe such a thing possible. The fact remains that this administration seems to be designed to be aligned with the views of Donald Trump. For the moment, its methods of resolving the Ukrainian conflict are unknown. Probably transactional, they will have to be confronted with the reality on the ground. Europeans must hear the message: we must be strategically autonomous and ready to maintain our commitments over time.
A power of appointment… which remains subject to the control of the Senate
However, this concentration of powers remains limited by certain internal oppositions within the Senate Republicans which may prevent certain appointments. We particularly saw this recently with the eviction of Matt Gaetz whom Donald Trump had designated as his future Minister of Justice. Former representative of the United States from 1is district of Florida from 2017 to 2024, Matt Gaetz nevertheless benefited from the unconditional support of JD Vance and Elon Musk. Vice President Vance even accompanied him during his Senate hearing to plead his case. This will not have been enough.
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It must be said that Matt Gaetz's profile was explosive to say the least. In March 2022, he was one of eight representatives in Congress to vote against suspending trade relations with Russia. Also known for his opposition to abortion “without exception”, Matt Gaetz has also suffered from significant legal difficulties which have tarnished his image as a pure and hard conservative of the Freedom Caucus. He was particularly concerned as part of an investigation opened at the end of 2020 aimed at determining whether he had not violated the laws against “sex trafficking” in force in Florida. Matt Gaetz would have slept with a 17-year-old minor introduced to him by the local Florida elected official Joel Greenberg, accused of being at the head of a small online pimping business… This will bring to mind another famous evangelical Christian, the rocker Jerry Lee Lewis who married his cousin when she was 13. “Even though I had strong support, it is clear that my confirmation had unfairly become a distraction from the crucial work of the transition… There is no time to waste on unnecessary wrangling in Washington, so I am withdrawing my name. The Trump Justice Department must be in place and ready on day one. declared Mr. Gaetz on November 20. A way to come out on top from an inextricable situation. He was able to give up on his own on the grounds that the “allegations” against him did not affect the new administration. The reality is crueler. Four to six Republican senators including Mitt Romney and the current chairman of the group Mitch McConnell opposed his nomination. He was therefore replaced by another more consensual personality, the Floridian Pam Bondi. Her mission will be to ensure, as Donald Trump said, that the ministry is no longer “instrumentalized” against him and other Republicans.
Was Gaetz's nomination a test or a diversion for Donald Trump to nominate the people they really wanted around him? This is what some commentators on American political life think. Another personality is currently under fire. This is Pete Hegseth, considered to be Secretary of Defense in the new administration. A well-known and appreciated media personality in the “Maga” ecosystem, the man is targeted like Matt Gaetz for a morality affair dating from 2017. He was cleared after reaching a financial agreement with the complainant but he is not excluded that Donald Trump discreetly exfiltrates it. Already anticipated in 2016, he was then deemed insufficiently competent. Like other members of the Trump administration, he is a strong support of Israel and has even called for the reconstruction of Solomon's Temple where the Al-Aqsa Mosque currently stands.
Conclusion
There will be many lessons to be learned from the next Trump mandate for Europeans. Firstly because we will have to realize that strategic autonomy is imperative in the world of tomorrow. Finally, because we will see their economy take off even more. Since 2008, the gap in GDP per capita has widened significantly. We are getting poorer and they are getting richer. If the spectacular nature of this administration, similar to the casting of an 80s action film, may make some pretentious people smile, make no mistake: it will be effective. See Pierre Moscovici laugh on the profile of Linda McMahonformer president of the WWE wrestling federation appointed head of Education, says a lot about the disconnection of our elites… The United States of Trump will be fierce competitors, but also, in certain aspects, a model of which we we would perhaps do to inspire ourselves with the best he has (without borrowing the worst, that is to say the spectacle and the excess).
