Published on July 1, 2024 at 12:33 p.m.
Experts had predicted a very active hurricane season. The storms have started the season with a bang and seem to be confirming their fears.
Explosive start to the season
Three systems big enough to be named, including a major hurricane before July 1st, is truly exceptional in the Atlantic basin. First there was Alberto, which opened the season on June 19th after several days of gestation. The tropical storm had deposited abundant rains on northeastern Mexico and then southern Texas before dissipating on land on June 20th, not before having caused the death of 4 people. Then Beryl, which intensified in a lightning fashion, reaching Category 4 in less than 36 hours. The hurricane is expected to hit the Antilles and cause serious damage during the day on Monday.
Chris joins the dance
And here is another depression forming in the Gulf of Mexico, and gaining enough strength to be named Chris. And we’re not talking about a few days ahead of normal. We’re talking about months. On average, the first major hurricane of the season is observed on September 1st. Beryl reached that status on June 30th, two months ahead of the average date. Even if we’re just talking about the first hurricane, the average date is August 11th. Almost a month and a half ahead of schedule with Beryl. Chris also marks a milestone confirming the great advancement of this season. It usually takes until August 3rd before we see a third named storm. Chris was named on June 30th.
Beryl sets record
Beryl represented not only a spectacular advance, but a record for early arrival. In 2005, Dennis was the earliest Category 4 hurricane, reaching that mark on July 8. Beryl was measured as a Category 4 on June 30. The record for a Category 5 hurricane, the highest on the Saffir-Simpson scale, was set by Emily on July 17, 2005. It is of course impossible to predict whether this mark will be broken, but if the trend continues in the basin, such an event is quite possible.
If the trend continues…
Because the season is just beginning. In the middle of the ocean, between the east coast of Africa and South America, a few cells are taking shape. They are being monitored, and tropical storm formation is likely in the next 7 days. The 2024 list of tropical storms includes 21 names. The next ones will be, in order: Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helen, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie and William. But at this rate, we will probably have to add more by the end of the season.
